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Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity

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  • Diego J. Perez

    () (Stanford University)

Abstract

This paper explores two mechanisms through which a sovereign default can disrupt the domestic economy via its banking system. First, a sovereign default creates a negative balance-sheet effect on banks, which reduces their ability to raise funds and prevents the flow of resources to productive investments. Second, default undermines internal liquidity as banks replace government securities with less productive investments. I quantify the model using Argentinean data and find that these two mechanisms can generate a deep and persistent fall in output post-default, which accounts for the government’s commitment necessary to explain observed levels of external public debt. The balance-sheet effect is more important because it generates a larger output cost of default and a stronger ex-ante commitment for the government. Post-default bailouts of the banking system, although desirable ex-post, are welfare reducing ex-ante since they weaken government’s commitment. Imposing a minimum public debt requirement on banks is welfare improving as it enhances commitment by increasing the output cost of default.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego J. Perez, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," Discussion Papers 15-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:15-016
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    File URL: http://www-siepr.stanford.edu/repec/sip/15-016.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Morten Ravn & Neele Balke, 2015. "Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy in a Debt Crisis," 2015 Meeting Papers 613, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Diego Perez & Pablo Ottonello, 2016. "The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt," 2016 Meeting Papers 596, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Matteo Crosignani, 2015. "Why Are Banks Not Recapitalized During Crises?," Working Papers 203, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2017. "Domestic and External Sovereign Debt," Working Paper Series 345, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Burcu Eyigungor & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2016. "Growth Regimes, Endogenous Elections, and Sovereign Default Risk," 2016 Meeting Papers 1058, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Anusha Chari & Ryan Leary & Toan Phan, 2017. "The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico," NBER Working Papers 24108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pablo D'Erasmo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Distributional Incentives In An Equilibrium Model Of Domestic Sovereign Default," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 7-44, February.
    9. Tomas Williams, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Working Papers 2017-12, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    10. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    11. Diniz, Andre & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2017. "How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86169, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Luigi Bocola, 2016. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 879-926.
    13. Ricardo Reis, 2017. "QE in the Future: The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in a Fiscal Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 71-112, April.
    14. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2493 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Sovereign default; public debt; banks; liquidity.;

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