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Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations

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  • Engler, Philipp
  • Grosse Steffen, Christoph

Abstract

This paper studies the bank-sovereign link in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up with strategic default on public debt. Heterogeneous banks give rise to an interbank market where government bonds are used as collateral. A default penalty arises from a breakdown of interbank intermediation that induces a credit crunch. Government borrowing under limited commitment is costly ex ante as bank funding conditions tighten when the quality of collateral drops. This lowers the penalty from an interbank freeze and feeds back into default risk. The arising amplification mechanism propagates aggregate shocks to the macro-economy. The model is calibrated using Spanish data and is capable of reproducing key business cycle statistics alongside stylized facts during the European sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: E43, E44, F34, H63

Suggested Citation

  • Engler, Philipp & Grosse Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1840, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151840
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    2. Podstawski, Maximilian & Velinov, Anton, 2018. "The state dependent impact of bank exposure on sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88, pages 63-75.
    3. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Ma, Xiaofei, 2018. "Banks, sovereign risk and unconventional monetary policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 153-171.
    4. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of sovereign defaults: Restructuring strategies, bank distress and the capital inflow-credit channel," Working Papers 37, European Stability Mechanism.
    5. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "A reconsideration of multiple equilibria in the analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-52.
    6. María Cantero Sáiz & Sergio Sanfilippo Azofra & Begoña Torre Olmo, 2019. "The single supervision mechanism and contagion between bank and sovereign risk," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 67-106, February.
    7. Kaas, Leo & Mellert, Jan & Scholl, Almuth, 2020. "Sovereign and private default risks over the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Minetti, Raoul & Olivero, María Pía, 2018. "Interbank markets and bank bailout policies amid a sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 131-153.
    9. Helen Louri & Petros Migiakis, 2019. "Financing economic activity in Greece: Past challenges and future prospects," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 135, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    10. Palmén, Olli, 2020. "Sovereign default risk and credit supply: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Paczos, Wojtek & Shakhnov, Kirill, 2022. "Defaulting on Covid debt," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Dominik Thaler, 2021. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Exclusion from International Capital Markets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1401-1427.
    13. J. Barthélemy & V. Bignon & B. Nguyen, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Collateral Constraints since the European Debt Crisis," Working papers 669, Banque de France.
    14. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "The role of lenders' trust in determining borrowing conditions for sovereign debt: An analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    16. Luca Fornaro & Christoph Grosse-Steffen, 2024. "Fragmented Monetary Unions," Working Papers 1437, Barcelona School of Economics.
    17. Podstawski, Maximilian & Velinov, Anton, 2018. "The state dependent impact of bank exposure on sovereign risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 63-75.
    18. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Müller, Georg & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers within the euro area in the context of sovereign risk and bank fragility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Christoph Große Steffen & Maximilian Podstawski, 2016. "Ambiguity and Time-Varying Risk Aversion in Sovereign Debt Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1602, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Occhino, Filippo, 2017. "The 2012 eurozone crisis and the ECB’s OMT program: A debt-overhang banking and sovereign crisis interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 337-363.
    21. Gabriella CHIESA & José Manuel MANSILLA-FERNÁNDEZ, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Cost of Capital, and Lending Supply: Lessons from the Eurozone Banking Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 2018-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    22. Eyquem, Aurélien & Poilly, Céline & Belianska, Anna, 2023. "On portfolio frictions, asset returns and volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    23. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Helen Louri & Petros Migiakis, 2019. "Financing economic growth in Greece: lessons from the crisis," Working Papers 262, Bank of Greece.
    25. Luis Rojas & Dominik Thaler, 2020. "The Bright Side of the Doom Loop: Banks Exposure and Default Incentives," Working Papers 1143, Barcelona School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank-sovereign link; Domestic debt; interbank market; Non-Ricardian effects; Occasionally binding constraint; secondary markets; sovereign default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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