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Monetary policy and sovereign debt vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Galo Nuño

    (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Thomas

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We investigate the trade-offs between price stability and the sustainability of sovereign debt, using a small open economy model where the government issues nominal defaultable debt and chooses fiscal and monetary policy under discretion. Inflation reduces the real value of outstanding debt, thus making it more sustainable; but it also raises nominal yields and entails direct welfare costs. We compare this scenario with a situation in which the government gives up the ability to deflate debt away, e.g. by issuing foreign currency debt or joining a monetary union with an anti-inflationary stance. We find that the benefits of giving up this adjustment margin outweigh the costs, both for our preferred calibration and for a wide range of parameter values.

Suggested Citation

  • Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2015. "Monetary policy and sovereign debt vulnerability," Working Papers 1517, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1517
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Alonso-Ortiz & Esteban Colla & José-María Da-Rocha, 2017. "The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 611-633, December.
    2. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    3. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    4. Illenin Kondo & Fabrizio Perri & Sewon Hur, 2016. "Inflation, Debt, and Default," 2016 Meeting Papers 1610, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "Loss Aversion and Search for Yield in Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Rebelo, Sérgio & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 13202, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents (Updated September 2019)," Working Papers 1624, Banco de España, revised Sep 2019.
    8. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2017. "Overcoming the Original Sin: Gains from Local Currency External Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_27, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    9. Bacchetta, Philippe & Perazzi, Elena & van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Self-fulfilling debt crises: What can monetary policy do?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-134.
    10. Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2020. "Infation, default and sovereign debt: The role of denomination and ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Bolton, Patrick & Huang, Haizhou, 2017. "The Capital Structure of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Carré, Sylvain & Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2019. "The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Lévy stochastic processes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 31-43.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary-fiscal interactions; discretion; sovereign default; continuous time; optimal stopping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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