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Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Arellano

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Gabriel Mihalache

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Yan Bai

    (University of Rochester)

Abstract

During the 1980s and 1990s emerging markets experienced recurrent episodes of high inflation and debt crises with high sovereign default premia, and many default events. Since the 2000s, inflation has come down in many of these emerging markets and debt crises have been limited. These developments have occurred as central banks in emerging markets have become more independent and have adopted a monetary policy of setting interest rates to target inflation. In this paper we study the interplay of monetary policy and sovereign default risk and show that inflation target induce not only lower inflation rates but also lower default risk of sovereign debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Arellano & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:851
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Ulug & Sayım Işık & Mehmet Mert, 2023. "The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2855-2887, August.
    2. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Qureshi, Anum, 2022. "Impact of sovereign credit ratings on systemic risk and the moderating role of regulatory reforms: An international investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2024. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(3), pages 1243-1290.
    4. Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 191-241.
    5. Sewon Hur & Illenin O. Kondo & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Real Interest Rates, Inflation, and Default," Staff Report 574, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3097-3138, December.
    7. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Fernando M. Martin & Juan M. Sánchez, 2025. "Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 74-113, July.
    8. James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2025. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 2389-2434, August.
    9. Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2021. "Sovereign default and liquidity: The case for a world safe asset," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," NBER Working Papers 29476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Yasin Kursat Onder & Enes Sunel, 2021. "Inflation-default trade-off without a nominal anchor: The case of Greece," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 55-78, January.
    12. Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2024. "Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2053-2103.
    13. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 391-426, June.
    14. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, 2022. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Colombia: An Empirical Exploration of the Credit Risk Channel," Borradores de Economia 1196, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Marina Azzimonti & Laura Karpuska & Gabriel Mihalache, 2020. "Bargaining over Mandatory Spending and Entitlements," Department of Economics Working Papers 20-02, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    16. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 779-824, June.
    17. Lozano-Espitia, Ignacio & Arias-Rodríguez, Fernando, 2022. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Colombia: An Empirical Exploration of the Credit Channel," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(4).
    18. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    19. Javier Bianchi, 2022. "The Research Agenda: Javier Bianchi on Financial Crises and Prudential Policies," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 23(1), April.
    20. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2022. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 435-491.
    22. Marina Azzimonti & Gabriel P. Mihalache & Laura Karpuska, 2020. "Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements," NBER Working Papers 27595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Mitsuru Katagiri & Yusuke Oh & Yasutaka Ogawa & Nao Sudo & Takeki Sunakawa, 2024. "On the Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Developments in Macroeconomics since the Global Financial Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    24. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Xiang Fang & Bryan Hardy & Karen K Lewis, 2025. "Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(8), pages 2326-2361.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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