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Welfare analysis of currency regimes with defaultable debts

Author

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  • Araujo, Aloisio
  • Leon, Marcia
  • Santos, Rafael

Abstract

We modify the Cole and Kehoe model by including domestic debt. According to the original model, a speculative attack on a high debt level issued abroad triggers external debt default. Here, it is possible to inflate away the domestic debt to avoid the external debt default. We consider two possibilities for domestic debt denomination: (i) local currency and (ii) common currency. In the second case, inflation depends on a monetary union decision. Our numerical results show that to have a debt share denominated in a common currency is optimal when the refinancing risks are highly correlated across union members. Otherwise, the best is to keep the domestic debt denominated in local currency. Finally, the extreme case of having all debt issued abroad and denominated in a foreign currency is suitable when, under alternative regimes, suboptimal inflation motivated by political factors is likely. Although the paper was originally developed for emerging market economies, it sheds some light on the recent Eurozone crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Aloisio & Leon, Marcia & Santos, Rafael, 2013. "Welfare analysis of currency regimes with defaultable debts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 143-153.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:89:y:2013:i:1:p:143-153 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.07.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 78-88.
    3. Araújo, Aloisio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Ataques Especulativos sobre Dívidas e Dolarização," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
    4. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    5. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
    6. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-259, March.
    8. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Perez & Pablo Ottonello, 2016. "The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt," 2016 Meeting Papers 596, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Patrick Bolton & Haizhou Huang, 2017. "The Capital Structure of Nations," NBER Working Papers 23612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Aloisio Araujo, 2015. "General equilibrium, preferences and financial institutions after the crisis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 217-254, February.
    4. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon & Rafael Santos, 2017. "Bargained haircuts and debt policy implications," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 635-656.
    5. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2014. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," Working Paper 102321, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 22592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2015. "Monetary policy and sovereign debt vulnerability," Working Papers 1517, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath, 2015. "Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(4), pages 1727-1779.
    9. Daniel Fried, 2017. "Inflation, Default, and the Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt in Emerging Economies: Working Paper 2017-01," Working Papers 52385, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. David M Arseneau & Sylvain Leduc, 2013. "Commodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of Storage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 199-224, April.
    11. Bolton, Patrick & Huang, Haizhou, 2017. "The Capital Structure of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollarization; Optimum currency area; Speculative attacks; Debt crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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