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Sovereigns going bust: estimating the cost of default

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry
  • Zimmermann, Kaspar

Abstract

This paper estimates the cost of sovereign default by using novel econometric methods – dynamic local projections applied to a sample that is re-randomised using inverse propensity score weights. We find that the impact of default on output is negative, significant and persistent – around 2.8% of GDP on impact and 4.8% at peak. The downturn is driven by sharp falls in investment, accompanied by a collapse in gross trade. The cost rises dramatically if the default is followed by a systemic banking crisis, peaking at 9.5% GDP. Our findings suggest that while autarky costs play an important role, sovereign-banking spillovers are central to the cost of default.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2016. "Sovereigns going bust: estimating the cost of default," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 01/2016, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:012016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
    2. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of sovereign defaults: Restructuring strategies, bank distress and the capital inflow-credit channel," Working Papers 37, European Stability Mechanism.
    3. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Bédhat Jean-Marc Atsebi & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The trade costs of financial crises," Working Papers halshs-01990335, HAL.
    5. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    6. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2019. "Sovereign risk after sovereign restructuring. Private and official default," Working Papers 423, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    7. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    9. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    10. Chuku Chuku & Alexandre Kopoin, 2022. "Working Paper 367 - Debt Distress and Recovery Episodes in Africa: Good Policy or Good Luck?," Working Paper Series 2493, African Development Bank.
    11. Cheng, Gong & Díaz-Cassou, Javier & Erce, Aitor, 2018. "Official debt restructurings and development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 181-195.
    12. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2017. "From Debt Collection to Relief Provision: 60 Years of Official Debt Restructurings through the Paris Club," Working Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism.
    13. Pontines, Victor, 2018. "Self-selection and treatment effects: Revisiting the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 299-316.
    14. Beck, Roland & Duca, Ioana A. & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence," Working Paper Series 2229, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; sovereign debt; banking crises; treatment effects; local projections; inverse propensity score weighting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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