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Output costs of sovereign crises: some empirical estimates

Author

Listed:
  • De Paoli, Bianca

    () (Bank of England)

  • Hoggarth, Glenn

    () (Bank of England)

  • Saporta, Victoria

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

Avoiding the broader output losses to their economy is likely to be the key reason why governments avoid debt crises. Despite this, there has been little work that seeks to quantify output losses associated with such crises. This paper seeks to fill this gap. We find that debt crisis episodes last for long - on average by about ten years - and are associated with large output losses (of at least 5% per year). Sovereign crises rarely occur in isolation - more often than not they are associated with currency crises or banking crises or both. It is the occurrence of a potent cocktail of 'twin' or 'triple' crises that is strongly associated with output losses rather than sovereign crisis per se.

Suggested Citation

  • De Paoli, Bianca & Hoggarth, Glenn & Saporta, Victoria, 2009. "Output costs of sovereign crises: some empirical estimates," Bank of England working papers 362, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0362
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    Cited by:

    1. König, Philipp & Anand, Kartik & Heinemann, Frank, 2014. "Guarantees, transparency and the interdependency between sovereign and bank default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 321-337.
    2. Horn, Fabian, 2015. "Quantifying the costs of sovereign defaults using odious debt cases as a quasi-natural experiment," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113125, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Schröder, Christoph, 2014. "Haircut size, haircut type and the probability of serial sovereign debt restructurings," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-126, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    4. Bush, Oliver & Farrant, Katie & Wright, Michelle, 2011. "Financial Stability Paper No 13: Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 13, Bank of England.
    5. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Akira Sasahara, 2016. "Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings; Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?," IMF Working Papers 16/222, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    7. Qian, Rong, 2012. "Why do some countries default more often than others ? the role of institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5993, The World Bank.
    8. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    9. Eyigungor, Burcu, 2013. "Debt dilution: when it is a major problem and how to deal with it," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 1-8.
    10. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2012. "When is debt sustainable?," CPB Discussion Paper 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Dmitry Kuvshinov & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2016. "Sovereigns going bust: estimating the cost of default," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse01_2016, University of Bonn, Germany.
    12. Brooke, Martin & Pienkowski, Alex & Mendes, Rhys & Santor, Eric, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 27: Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 27, Bank of England.
    13. Philipp König & Kartik Anand & Frank Heinemann, 2013. "The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, transparency, and systemic liquidity risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    14. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "How costly are debt crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 726-742.
    15. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    16. Marcello Bofondi & Luisa Carpinelli & Enrico Sette, 2013. "Credit supply during a sovereign debt crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 909, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2013. "Sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4217-4225.
    18. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G. Papaioannou & Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010; Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; output losses; banking crises; currency crises;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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