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Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Catão

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Sandeep Kapur

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

A striking feature of sovereign lending is that many countries with moderate debtto-income ratios systematically face higher spreads and more stringent borrowing constraints than other countries with far higher debt ratios. Earlier research has rationalized the phenomenon in terms of sovereign reputation and countries' distinct credit histories. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence to show that differences in underlying macroeconomic volatility are key. While volatility increases the need for international borrowing to help smooth domestic consumption, the ability to borrow is constrained by the higher default risk that volatility engenders. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:53:y:2006:i:2:p:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Catão, Luis A.V. & Fostel, Ana & Kapur, Sandeep, 2009. "Persistent gaps and default traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-284, July.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Miguel Angel Santos, 2016. "From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 255-284, February.
    4. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    5. Andrew T. Young & Jamie Bologna, 2016. "Crises And Government: Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 234-249, April.
    6. Luis A. V. Catão, 2007. "Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look," NBER Chapters,in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 243-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework; Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Swastika, Purti & Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "The Impact of Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 58837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ana L Fostel & Sandeep Kapur & Luis Catão, 2007. "Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps," IMF Working Papers 07/148, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "The final blow to the Stability Pact? EMU enlargement and government debt," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    12. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne & De Moor, Lieven, 2016. "Pernicious effects: How the credit rating agencies disadvantage emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 286-298.
    13. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    14. Phan, Toan, 2017. "Sovereign debt signals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 157-165.
    15. Fløgstad, Cathrin N. & Nordtveit, Ingvild, 2014. "Lending to developing countries: How do official creditors respond to sovereign defaults?," Working Papers in Economics 01/14, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    16. Daude, Christian, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 47-50.
    17. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    18. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 2009. "Getting Shut Out of the International Capital Markets: It Doesn't Take Much ," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 879-889, November.
    19. Nikolai Stähler, 2013. "Recent Developments In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 605-633, September.
    20. Curtiss, Jarmila, 2012. "Determinants of Financial Capital Use: Review of theories and implications for rural businesses," Factor Markets Working Papers 123, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    21. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G. Papaioannou & Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010; Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010. "International Government Debt," Business School Working Papers 2010-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    24. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Curtiss, Jarmila, 2012. "Determinants of Financial Capital Use: Review of theories and implications for rural businesses," Working Papers 122846, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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