IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1772.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Barry J. Eichengreen
  • Richard Portes

Abstract

This paper analyzes the "debt crisis" of the 1930s to see what light this historical experience sheds on recent difficulties in international capital markets. We first consider patterns of overseas lending and borrowing in the 1920s and 1930s, comparing the performance of standard models of foreign borrowing in this period to the 1970-80s. Next, we analyze the incidence and extent of defaulton sovereign debt, adapting models of debt capacity to the circumstances of the interwar years. We consider the choices available to investors in those foreign loans which lapsed into default in the 1930s, emphasizing the distinction between creditor banks and bond holders. Finally, we provide the first estimates of the realized rate of return on foreign loans floated between the wars, based on a sample of dollar andsterling bonds issued in the 1920s.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry J. Eichengreen & Richard Portes, 1985. "Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 1772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1772
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1772.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    3. William A. Darity, 1985. "Loan pushing : doctrine and theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 253, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, 1984. "Latin American Debt: I Don't Think We Are in Kansas Anymore," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 335-403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Optimal external debt and default," CEPR Discussion Papers 6035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
    4. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077, Elsevier.
    6. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
    7. Flores Zendejas, Juan, 2015. "Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers unige:73325, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    8. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Davide Lombardo, 2002. "Market Discipline and Exuberant Foreign Borrowing," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 333-360, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    10. Kyle Herkenhoff & Lee Ohanian, 2019. "The Impact of Foreclosure Delay on U.S. Employment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 63-83, January.
    11. Adler, Gustavo & Lizarazo, Sandra, 2015. "Intertwined sovereign and bank solvencies in a simple model of self-fulfilling crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 428-448.
    12. Janvier D. Nkurunziza, 2005. "Reputation and Credit without Collateral in Africa`s Formal Banking," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2005-02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Antinolfi, Gaetano & Azariadis, Costas & Bullard, James, 2016. "The Optimal Inflation Target In An Economy With Limited Enforcement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 582-600, March.
    14. Mare Sarr & Erwin Bulte & Chris Meissner & Tim Swanson, 2011. "On the looting of nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 353-380, September.
    15. Azzimonti, Marina & Mitra, Nirvana, 2023. "Political constraints and sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    17. Russell Cooper & Kalin Nikolov, 2018. "Government Debt And Banking Fragility: The Spreading Of Strategic Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1905-1925, November.
    18. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2006. "The IMF in a world of private capital markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1335-1357, May.
    19. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    20. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric R. Young, 2023. "Optimal Policy for Macrofinancial Stability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 401-428, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.