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Government Debt and Banking Fragility: The Spreading of Strategic Uncertainty

  • Russell Cooper
  • Kalin Nikolov

This paper studies the interaction of government debt and financial markets. Both markets are fragile: excessively responsive to fundamentals and prone to strategic uncertainty. This interaction, termed a ʽdiabolic loopʼ, is driven by government willingness to bail out banks and the resulting incentives for banks not to self-insure through equity buffers. We provide conditions such that the ʽdiabolic loopʼ is a Nash Equilibrium of the interaction between banks and the government arising from instability in debt markets and financial arrangements.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19278.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19278.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19278
Note: EFG
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  1. Harald Uhlig, 2013. "Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 19343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Cash-in-the-Market Pricing and Optimal Resolution of Bank Failures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2705-2742, November.
  3. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2013. "Deposit Insurance and Orderly Liquidation without Commitment: Can we Sleep Well?," NBER Working Papers 19132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2009. "Sovereign default, domestic banks and financial institutions," Economics Working Papers 1170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2012.
  5. Viral V. Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2013. "The "Greatest" Carry Trade Ever? Understanding Eurozone Bank Risks," NBER Working Papers 19039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Russell Cooper, 2012. "Debt Fragility and Bailouts," NBER Working Papers 18377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  8. Acharya, Viral V & Steffen, Sascha, 2013. "The "Greatest" Carry Trade Ever? Understanding Eurozone Bank Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  10. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Levine's Working Paper Archive 114, David K. Levine.
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
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