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Debt Fragility and Bailouts

  • Russell Cooper
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    This paper studies debt fragility and the sharing of the resulting strategic uncertainty through ex post bailouts. Default arises in equilibrium because of both fundamental shocks and beliefs. The probability of default depends on borrowing rates and, in equilibrium, on the beliefs of lenders about this probability. This interaction creates a strategic complementarity and thus the basis for strategic uncertainty. The paper analyzes the role of credible ex post bailouts as a means of sharing both fundamental and strategic uncertainty. While bailouts may occur in some states, debt fragility remains.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18377.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18377.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18377
    Note: EFG
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf & Dan Peled, 2005. "Is It Is or Is It Ain't My Obligation? Regional Debt in a Fiscal Federation," NBER Working Papers 11655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
    3. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-fulfilling debt crises," Staff Report 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    5. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Multiple Equilibria in the Eurozone," CEPS Papers 6548, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Bigelow, John & Cooper, Russell & Ross, Thomas W, 1993. "Warranties without Commitment to Market Participation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 85-100, February.
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