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Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal

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Listed:
  • Mark Aguiar
  • Satyajit Chatterjee
  • Harold L. Cole
  • Zachary Stangebye

Abstract

We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as ?desperate deals?, the defining feature of which is a price schedule that makes the government indifferent to default or repayment. The government randomizes at the time of repayment, which we show can be implemented in pure strategies by introducing stochastic political payoffs or external bailouts. Quantitatively, auctions at fire-sale prices are crucial for generating realistic spread volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Aguiar & Satyajit Chatterjee & Harold L. Cole & Zachary Stangebye, 2017. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal," Working Papers 17-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:17-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Amador & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "Reputation and Sovereign Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1979-2010, July.
    2. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2019. "Endogenous political turnover and fluctuations in sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 37-50.
    3. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/082, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt90t9q1mx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Radoslaw Paluszynski, 2023. "Learning about Debt Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 106-134, January.
    6. Saki Bigio & Galo Nuño & Juan Passadore, 2019. "A framework for debt-maturity management," Working Papers 1919, Banco de España.
    7. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2783-2818, September.
    8. Prein, Timm, 2019. "Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2019.
    9. Passadore, Juan & Xu, Yu, 2022. "Illiquidity in sovereign debt markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Crises; Bonds; Bond Auctions;
    All these keywords.

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