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Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal

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Listed:
  • Mark Aguiar
  • Satyajit Chatterjee
  • Harold L. Cole
  • Zachary Stangebye

Abstract

We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as ?desperate deals?, the defining feature of which is a price schedule that makes the government indifferent to default or repayment. The government randomizes at the time of repayment, which we show can be implemented in pure strategies by introducing stochastic political payoffs or external bailouts. Quantitatively, auctions at fire-sale prices are crucial for generating realistic spread volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Aguiar & Satyajit Chatterjee & Harold L. Cole & Zachary Stangebye, 2017. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal," Working Papers 17-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:17-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor Rios-Rull & Dean Corbae: & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2011. "A Theory of Credit Scoring and the Competitive Pricing of Default Risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Ayres, João & Navarro, Gaston & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2018. "Sovereign default: The role of expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 803-812.
    3. Auclert, Adrien & Rognlie, Matthew, 2016. "Unique equilibrium in the Eaton–Gersovitz model of sovereign debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 134-146.
    4. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    5. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    6. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4343-4377, December.
    7. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    8. Mr. Francisco Roch & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts," IMF Working Papers 2016/136, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2019. "Endogenous political turnover and fluctuations in sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 37-50.
    2. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/082, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Auerbach, Alan J & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt90t9q1mx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Radek Paluszynski, 2017. "Learning about Debt Crises," 2017 Meeting Papers 1602, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Saki Bigio & Galo Nuño & Juan Passadore, 2019. "A framework for debt-maturity management," Working Papers 1919, Banco de España.
    6. Prein, Timm, 2019. "Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Mark A. Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2018. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models," NBER Working Papers 24683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Debt; Crises; Bonds; Bond Auctions;
    All these keywords.

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