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Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal

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Listed:
  • Mark Aguiar
  • Satyajit Chatterjee
  • Harold Cole
  • Zachary Stangebye

Abstract

We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as “desperate deals,” the defining feature of which is a price schedule that makes the government indifferent to default or repayment. The government randomizes at the time of repayment, which we show can be implemented in pure strategies by introducing stochastic political payoffs or external bailouts. Quantitatively, auctions at fire-sale prices are crucial for generating realistic spread volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Aguiar & Satyajit Chatterjee & Harold Cole & Zachary Stangebye, 2017. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal," NBER Working Papers 23312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    2. Pedro Teles & Juan Nicolini & Gaston Navarro & Joao Ayres, 2015. "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," 2015 Meeting Papers 1505, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    4. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    5. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    6. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 22694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Francisco Roch & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts," IMF Working Papers 16/136, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 23789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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