Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal
We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as “desperate deals,” the defining feature of which is a price schedule that makes the government indifferent to default or repayment. The government randomizes at the time of repayment, which we show can be implemented in pure strategies by introducing stochastic political payoffs or external bailouts. Quantitatively, auctions at fire-sale prices are crucial for generating realistic spread volatility.
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|Date of creation:||Apr 2017|
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- Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011.
"Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
- R. G Gelos & Guido M Sandleris & Ratna Sahay, 2004. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries; What Determines Market Access?," IMF Working Papers 04/221, International Monetary Fund.
- R. Gaston Gelos, Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," Business School Working Papers 2008-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
- Alessandro Dovis & Luigi Bocola, 2016. "Self_fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," 2016 Meeting Papers 1218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Francisco Roch & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts," IMF Working Papers 16/136, International Monetary Fund.
- Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 22694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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