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Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension

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  • Mihalache, Gabriel

Abstract

Sovereign default episodes are resolved by restructuring the debt through renegotiations and implemented by bond swaps and resumption of debt service payments. This process provides debt relief for the sovereign and partially compensates lenders for their losses. In the data, the bulk of such debt relief is implemented by extending the maturity of the debt rather than changing its face value. We augment a standard maturity choice model with a post-default renegotiation phase and study whether it can replicate this observed maturity extension. The model is successful in generating this and other key features of renegotiations and maturity choice, but critically only when we assume that sovereigns continue to be excluded temporarily from financial markets after renegotiation, consistent with the observation that countries do not immediately resume borrowing. In contrast, a version of the model where market access is restored promptly features a counterfactual reduction in maturity, a puzzle for the standard model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:125:y:2020:i:c:s0022199620300453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103326
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    2. Azzimonti, Marina & Mitra, Nirvana, 2023. "Political constraints and sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Xavier Mateos-Planas & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Cristina Arellano, 2013. "Partial Default," 2013 Meeting Papers 765, Society for Economic Dynamics.
      • Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2019. "Partial Default," Discussion Papers 1911, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
      • Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2019. "Partial Default," NBER Working Papers 26076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2019. "Partial Default," Staff Report 589, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Marina Azzimonti & Laura Karpuska & Gabriel Mihalache, 2023. "Bargaining Over Taxes And Entitlements In The Era Of Unequal Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 893-941, August.
    5. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Emircan Yurdagul & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Sanchez, 2018. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Approach," 2018 Meeting Papers 1273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Mitra, Nirvana, 2020. "Political Constraints and Sovereign Default Premia," MPRA Paper 104172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arce, Fernando, 2021. "Private Overborrowing under Sovereign Risk," MPRA Paper 113176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Juan M. Sánchez & Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 26-77, April.
    10. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1864, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Yasin Kür¸sat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2023. "Debt Moratorium: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 1253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.
    14. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Cesar Sosa Padilla, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Standstills," IMF Working Papers 2020/290, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2024. "Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1096, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Kursat Onder & Mr. Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," IMF Working Papers 2022/078, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Maturity choice; Maturity extension; Sovereign default; Renegotiation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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