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Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium

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  • Leonardo Martinez

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Francisco Roch

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Juan Hatchondo

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

We present a sovereign default model that can mimic salient features in a typical small open economy. We then use the model to study the effects of introducing limits to the decision-making ability of governments' fiscal rules. We show that optimal limits to the debt level vary greatly across parameterizations of the model. In contrast, optimal limits to the sovereign premium the government can pay while increasing its debt are very similar across parameterizations. Given the uncertainty about model parameter values and political constraints that may force common fiscal rule targets across economies, these findings indicate that sovereign-premium limits may be preferable over debt limits. We also show that rules should not necessarily promote a countercyclical fiscal policy. Benets from imposing a rule arise even if governments are not shortsighted.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Juan Hatchondo, 2015. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," 2015 Meeting Papers 1262, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1262
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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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