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Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt

  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Leonardo Martinez

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and lowering duration to mitigate the debt dilution problem. We present two main results. First, when the government decides the debt duration on a sequential basis, sudden stop risk increases the average duration by 1 year. Second, we illustrate the time inconsistency problem in the choice of sovereign debt duration: Governments would like to commit to a duration that is 1.7 years shorter than the one they choose when decisions are made sequentially.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 13-08.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-08
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  1. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
  2. Niepelt, Dirk, 2008. "Debt Maturity without Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187 - 232.
  5. Leonardo Martinez & Cesar Sosa Padilla & Juan Hatchondo, 2012. "Debt dilution and sovereign default risk," 2012 Meeting Papers 974, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  7. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Why do emerging economies borrow short term?," Economics Working Papers 838, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2011.
  8. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Levine's Working Paper Archive 114, David K. Levine.
  10. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2015. "Fiscal rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," Caepr Working Papers 2015-010 Classification-F, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  11. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  12. Bianchi, Javier & Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2013. "International reserves and rollover risk," Working Paper 13-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 01 Jun 2013.
  13. Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2010. "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: solution methods matter," IMF Working Papers 10/100, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Vivian Z. Yue, 2005. "Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2005 Meeting Papers 138, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. David Benjamin, 2008. "Recovery Before Redemption," 2008 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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