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Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt

  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Leonardo Martinez

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and lowering duration to mitigate the debt dilution problem. We present two main results. First, when the government decides the debt duration on a sequential basis, sudden stop risk increases the average duration by 1 year. Second, we illustrate the time inconsistency problem in the choice of sovereign debt duration: Governments would like to commit to a duration that is 1.7 years shorter than the one they choose when decisions are made sequentially.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 13-08.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-08
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  1. Broner, Fernando A & Lorenzoni, Guido & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages S37-S54.
  3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2015. "Fiscal rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," Caepr Working Papers 2015-010 Classification-F, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  4. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Chapters, in: Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2013. "International reserves and rollover risk," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 151, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2010. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 10-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa Padilla, 2011. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," IMF Working Papers 11/70, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Levine's Working Paper Archive 114, David K. Levine.
  9. Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2010. "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models; solution methods matter," IMF Working Papers 10/100, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
  11. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
  12. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Ananth Ramanarayanan & Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 479, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
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