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Non-defaultable debt and sovereign risk

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  • Hatchondo, Juan Carlos
  • Martinez, Leonardo
  • Onder, Yasin Kursat

Abstract

We quantify gains from introducing limited financing through non-defaultable debt into a model of equilibrium sovereign risk. For an initial sovereign spread of 4.2%, introducing the possibility of issuing non-defaultable debt for up to 10% of aggregate income reduces immediately the spread to 1.5%, and implies a welfare gain equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of 0.8%. Nevertheless, the spread reduction achieved by the introduction of non-defaultable debt is short lived. Our findings shed light on different aspects of proposals to introduce common euro-area sovereign bonds that could be virtually non-defaultable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Onder, Yasin Kursat, 2017. "Non-defaultable debt and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 217-229.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:217-229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.008
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    Cited by:

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    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    4. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Liu, Yan & Marimon, Ramon & Wicht, Adrien, 2023. "Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Prein, Timm M. & Scholl, Almuth, 2021. "The impact of bailouts on political turnover and sovereign default risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Kursat Onder, Yasin, 2016. "Asset backed contracts and sovereign risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 237-252.
    9. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernán D. & Vukotić, Marija, 2020. "Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Cordella, Tito & Powell, Andrew, 2021. "Preferred and non-preferred creditors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Marcos Chamon & Erik Klok & Vimal Thakoor & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2024. "An Economic Analysis of Debt-for-Climate Swaps," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 918-939, June.
    12. Kobielarz, M.L., 2023. "Bailout dynamics in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Carré, Sylvain & Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2019. "The sources of sovereign risk: a calibration based on Lévy stochastic processes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 31-43.
    14. Holtemöller, Oliver & Scherer, Jan-Christopher, 2018. "Sovereign Stress, Banking Stress, and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area," ADBI Working Papers 811, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    15. Yasin Kursat Onder & Enes Sunel, 2021. "Inflation-default trade-off without a nominal anchor: The case of Greece," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 55-78, January.
    16. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2016. "Sovereign debt guarantees and default: Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920–1938," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 272-286.
    17. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1094, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Anevlavis, Tzanis, 2019. "Debt stabilization games in a monetary union: What are the effects of introducing eurobonds?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 78-102.
    19. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; Sovereign debt; Eurobonds; Red bonds; Blue bonds; Buyback; Voluntary debt exchange; Common euro-area sovereign bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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