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A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and Conditionality

  • Fabian Fink

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

  • Almuth Scholl

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

International Financial Institutions provide temporary balance-of-payment support contingent on the implementation of specific macroeconomic policies. While several emerging markets repeatedly used conditional assistance, sovereign defaults occurred. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic model of a small open economy with endogenous default risk and endogenous participation rates in bailout programs. Conditionality enters as a constraint on fiscal policy. In a quantitative application to Argentina the model mimics the empirical duration and frequency of bailout programs. In equilibrium, conditional bailouts generate high and volatile interest spreads. A Laffer-curve in conditionality reflects the trade-off between fostering fiscal reform and creating incentives for non-compliance.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Konstanz in its series Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz with number 2011-46.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 30 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1146
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  1. Ananth Ramanarayanan & Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 479, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
  5. Almuth Scholl, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness and Limited Enforceable Conditionality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Aug 2005.
  6. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  7. Graham Bird, 2002. "The Completion Rate of IMF Programmes: What We Know, Don't Know and Need to Know," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 833-847, 06.
  8. Graham Bird, 2007. "The Imf: A Bird'S Eye View Of Its Role And Operations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 683-745, 09.
  9. Bird, Graham, 2001. "IMF Programs: Do They Work? Can They be Made to Work Better?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1849-1865, November.
  10. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
  11. Ricardo Nunes & Horacio Sapriza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2010. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," 2010 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
  13. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Patrick Conway, 2007. "The Revolving Door: Duration and Recidivism in IMF Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 205-220, May.
  15. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bird, Graham & Hussain, Mumtaz & Joyce, Joseph P., 2004. "Many happy returns? Recidivism and the IMF," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 231-251, March.
  17. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
  18. Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2010. "Quantitative Properties of Sovereign Default Models; Solution Methods Matter," IMF Working Papers 10/100, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Joseph P Joyce, 2004. "Adoption, Implementation and Impact of IMF Programmes: A Review of the Issues and Evidence1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 451-467, September.
  20. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2007-03, Banco de México.
  21. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  22. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 11-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  23. Graham Bird, 2001. "IMF Programmes: Is there a conditionality Laffer Curve?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(2), pages 29-49, April.
  24. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Svensson, Jakob, 2003. "Why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 381-402, April.
  26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
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