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A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and Conditionality

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  • Fabian Fink

    () (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

  • Almuth Scholl

    () (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)

Abstract

International Financial Institutions provide temporary balance-of-payment support contingent on the implementation of specific macroeconomic policies. While several emerging markets repeatedly used conditional assistance, sovereign defaults occurred. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic model of a small open economy with endogenous default risk and endogenous participation rates in bailout programs. Conditionality enters as a constraint on fiscal policy. In a quantitative application to Argentina the model mimics the empirical duration and frequency of bailout programs. In equilibrium, conditional bailouts generate high and volatile interest spreads. A Laffer-curve in conditionality reflects the trade-off between fostering fiscal reform and creating incentives for non-compliance.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Fink & Almuth Scholl, 2011. "A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and Conditionality," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-46, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  • Handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
    2. Thomas McGregor, 2017. "Pricing sovereign debt in resource rich economies," OxCarre Working Papers 194, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    4. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2017. "Optimal fiscal policy and sovereign debt crises," Working Papers 218, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Collard, Fabrice & Habib, Michel Antoine & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2016. "The Reluctant Defaulter: A Tale of High Government Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 11299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Scholl, Almuth & Kaas, Leo & Meller, Jan, 2016. "Sovereign and Private Default Risks over the Business Cycle," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Onder, Yasin Kursat, 2017. "Non-defaultable debt and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 217-229.
    8. Florian Kirsch & Ronald Rühmkorf, 2013. "Sovereign Borrowing, Financial Assistance and Debt Repudiation," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse01_2013, University of Bonn, Germany.
    9. Nikolai Stähler, 2013. "Recent Developments In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 605-633, September.
    10. Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," PSE Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
    11. Almuth Scholl, 2013. "Debt Relief for Poor Countries: Conditionality and Effectiveness," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-23, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    12. repec:spr:joecth:v:64:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-015-0945-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; sovereign default; interest rate spread; fiscal policy; bailouts; conditionality;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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