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The Revolving Door: Duration and Recidivism in IMF Programs

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  • Patrick Conway

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract

Quarterly evidence on participation in IMF programs for the period 1974-2003 is examined using the techniques of hazard analysis and error-correction estimation. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested. An increase in cumulative prior participation in IMF programs is found to cause a reduction on average in the length of a new spell of participation. The length of time between participation spells is reduced significantly with an increase in prior participation in IMF programs. Reserve adequacy is shown to be significantly and positively affected by participation in IMF programs. The results support a "revolving door" explanation of participation in IMF programs. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Conway, 2007. "The Revolving Door: Duration and Recidivism in IMF Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 205-220, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:89:y:2007:i:2:p:205-220
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
    2. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "IMF Lending in Times of Crisis: Political Influences and Crisis Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1944-1969.
    3. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Vreeland, 2014. "The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 51-83, January.
    4. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    5. Michael Breen & Robert Gillanders, 2015. "Political Trust, Corruption, and Ratings of the IMF and the World Bank," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 337-364, March.
    6. Howard Stein, 2009. "A Brief History of Aid in East Africa: The Political Economy of Convergence," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(4), pages 13-22, January.
    7. Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Fink, Fabian & Scholl, Almuth, 2016. "A quantitative model of sovereign debt, bailouts and conditionality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 176-190.
    9. repec:spr:revint:v:12:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11558-016-9250-3 is not listed on IDEAS

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