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Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises

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  • Dreher, Axel
  • Walter, Stefanie

Abstract

Summary We empirically analyze the effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) involvement on the risk of entering a currency crisis and, respectively, the outcome of such a crisis. Specifically, we investigate whether countries with previous IMF intervention are more likely to experience currency crises. In a second step, we analyze the IMF's impact on a country's decision to adjust the exchange rate, once a crisis occurs. We find that IMF involvement reduces the probability of a crisis. Once in a crisis, IMF programs significantly increase the probability that the authorities devalue the exchange rate. The amount of loans and compliance with conditionality have no impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:1-18
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    Keywords

    IMF programs growth compliance conditionality world;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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