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IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations

This paper analyses the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. Essentially, we test the hypothesis that IMF aid accelerates stabilization using probit and proportional hazards models. As in theoretical models, results are mixed: larger withdrawals of the amounts agreed to seem to hasten stabilization, but there is weak evidence that IMF arrangements lead to greater delays. Concerning other effects, greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization while higher inflation tends to hasten it. Other political and economic variables do not seem to have significant effects on the timing of stabilizations.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2002/NIPE_WP_2_2002.PDF
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 2/2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:2/2002
Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Fax: +351-253601380
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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  1. Drazen, A. & Grilli, V., 1991. "The Benefits of Crisis for Economic Reforms," Papers 27-91, Tel Aviv.
  2. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2000. "Does the IMF cause moral hazard and political business cycles? : Evidence from panel data," Discussion Papers 598, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  3. Ball, Richard & Rausser, Gordon, 1995. "Governance structures and the durability of economic reforms: Evidence from inflation stabilizations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-912, June.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2000. "Bargaining over reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1659-1676, October.
  6. Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989. "Why are Stabilizations Delayed?," NBER Working Papers 3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alex Cukierman & Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," NBER Working Papers 3199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
  9. Casella, Alessandra & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  11. Athanasios Orphanides, 1992. "The timing of stabilizations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 194, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Francisco José Veiga, 2000. "Delays of Inflation Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 275-295, November.
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