Fiscal deficits and inflation
Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991.
"Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?,"
6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Alex Cukierman & Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1989.
"Seigniorage and Political Instability,"
NBER Working Papers
3199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- John H. Cochrane, 1998.
"A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation,"
CRSP working papers
479, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Maria Cristina Terra, 1995.
"Openess and inflation: a new assessment,"
Textos para discussão
339, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- David Romer, 1991.
"Openness and inflation: theory and evidence,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
NBER Working Papers
8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael Woodford, 2001.
"Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability,"
NBER Working Papers
8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000.
"Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?," NBER Working Papers 5108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
- Haan, Jakob de & Kooi, Willem J., 2000. "Does central bank independence really matter?: New evidence for developing countries using a new indicator," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 643-664, April.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999.
"Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998.
"Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," NBER Working Papers 6471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1998.
"Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
415, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
- Peter Ireland, 1998. "Matlab code for Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," QM&RBC Codes 44, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1982.
"The Ends of Four Big Inflations,"
in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, December.
- Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1985. "Money, deficits, and inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-195, January.
- Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-22, October.
- Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Empirical Analysis of High-Inflation Episodes in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 527-549, September.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997.
"Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?,"
97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
- Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996.
"Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?,"
NBER Working Papers
5540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1997. "Monetary policy comes of age: a 20th century odyssey," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-22.
- Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
- Prakash Loungani & Phillip L Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/198, International Monetary Fund.
- Fatás, Antonio & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
- De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December.
- Franco, Gustavo H B, 1990. "Fiscal Reforms and Stabilisation: Four Hyperinflation Cases Examined," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 176-87, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:52:y:2005:i:3:p:529-554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.