IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csa/wpaper/2005-08.html

Openness and inflation volatility: cross-country evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Bowdler
  • Adeel Malik

Abstract

Recent decades have seen a considerable expansion of global trade and a simultaneous decline in inflation volatility. This paper investigates whether greater openness to trade helps achieve inflation stability. Using panel data for a sample of developing and industrial countries over the period 1961-2000, we document a negative and statistically significant effect of openness on inflation volatility. This relationship is estimated after controlling for the potential endogenity of openness, and the average rate of inflation. We conduct a battery of robuistness tests, showing in particular the robustness of our conclusions to controlling for the choice of exchange rate regime. A sub-sample analysis suggests that the relationship between openness and inflation volatility is more pronounced in developing and emerging market economies thanin OECD countires. We also identify potential channels underpinning this relationship. In particulare, we provide eveidenc that openness may promote inflation stability through dampening monetary and terms of trade shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: cross-country evidence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2005-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2005-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b227278a-ca50-480e-840c-a05d9eca362e
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Horst Feldmann, 2012. "Inflation volatility and unemployment in industrial countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 49-64, January.
    2. Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar S. & Zhang, Boyang, 2015. "What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 102-116.
    3. Florence Barugahara, 2015. "The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(1), pages 56-73, March.
    4. Daniel Santabárbara & Marta Suárez-Varela, 2022. "Carbon pricing and inflation volatility," Working Papers 2231, Banco de España.
    5. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    6. Francis Obeng Afari & Jong Chil Son & Horlali Yaw Haligah, 2021. "Empirical analysis of the relationship between openness and inflation: a case study of sub-Saharan Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Alimi, R. Santos & Olorunfemi, Sola, 2018. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Matter for Validity of Romer’s Hypothesis? Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 90948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Aliyev, Khatai & Gasimov, Ilkin, 2014. "Openness-Inflation Nexus in South Caucasus Economies," MPRA Paper 62761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Qureshi, Irfan, "undated". "Monetary Policy Shifts and Central Bank Independence," Economic Research Papers 269096, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. Esteban Colla De Robertis, 2010. "Monetary Committee Size and Special Interest Influence," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 2, CEMLA.
    11. Ummad Mazhar & Cheick Kader M'baye, 2014. "Does Forecasts Transparency Affect Macroeconomic Volatility in Developing Countries ? Evidence From Quasi-Natural Experiments," Working Papers 1410, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    12. Lenin Arango-Castillo & María José Orraca & Regina Briseño, 2025. "Inflation volatility across advanced and emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 2025-13, Banco de México.
    13. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Zichao Jia & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 169-187, December.
    14. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economics Research Papers 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    15. Rana Atabay, 2016. "The Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation in Turkey," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 137-145, April.
    16. Oseni Isiaq Olasunkanmi & Sanni Hauwa Yetunde, 2016. "Does Fiscal Deficit Granger Cause Impulsiveness in Inflation Rate in Nigeria?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(4), pages 208-216, October.
    17. Sikdar, Asaduzzaman & Kundu, Nobinkhor & Khan, Zakir Saadullah, 2013. "Trade openness and inflation: A test of Romer hypothesis for Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 65244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2013.
    18. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    19. Mazhar, Ummad & Jafri, Juvaria, 2014. "Does an informal sector reduce the economic dividends of political stability? Empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 60764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shesadri Banerjee, 2017. "Empirical Regularities of Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 133-156, June.
    21. Rafael Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Stephen O’Connell & Richard Peck, 2016. "Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 782-810.
    22. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Camilo Morales J., 2007. "Inflación y apertura: evidencia para Colombia (1980-2005)," Borradores de Economia 460, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J., 2007. "Inflaci�n y apertura: evidencia para Colombia (1980-2005)," Borradores de Economia 4286, Banco de la Republica.
    24. repec:jaf:journl:v:7:y:2016:i:1:n:45 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2005-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Coffey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csaoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.