IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-205.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

Author

Listed:
  • Rahul Anand
  • Mr. Eswar S Prasad
  • Boyang Zhang

Abstract

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahul Anand & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Boyang Zhang, 2015. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?," IMF Working Papers 2015/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43301
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark (ed.), 2010. "International Dimensions of Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226278865, October.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    4. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    6. Catão, Luis A.V. & Chang, Roberto, 2015. "World food prices and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-88.
    7. Rahul Anand & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/200, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, April.
    9. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 1995. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 165-188, August.
    10. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The Case for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    12. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    13. Eswar S Prasad, 2014. "Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(3), pages 409-429, August.
    14. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido, 2003. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 104, Barcelona School of Economics.
    17. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
    19. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    20. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
    23. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    24. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    25. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    26. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Guido Ascari, 2004. "Staggered Prices and Trend Inflation: Some Nuisances," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 642-667, July.
    29. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Klapper, Leora, 2012. "Measuring financial inclusion : the Global Findex Database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6025, The World Bank.
    30. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1.
    31. Basu, Priya & Srivastava, Pradeep, 2005. "Scaling-up microfinance for India's rural poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3646, The World Bank.
    32. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute To Stabilizing Economic Activity?," NBER Working Papers 13970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    34. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    35. Juan Pablo Medina G. & David Rappoport W. & Claudio Soto G., 2007. "Dynamics of Price Adjustments: Evidence From Micro Level Data For Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 5-26, August.
    36. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    38. Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: Cross-country evidence," Economics Papers 2005-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    39. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    40. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 205-245, Springer.
    41. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
    43. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    44. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    45. Mr. James P Walsh, 2011. "Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2011/071, International Monetary Fund.
    46. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1058-1086, September.
    47. Creamer, Kenneth & Rankin, Neil A., 2008. "Price setting in South Africa 2001-2007 - stylised facts using consumer price micro data," MPRA Paper 16905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    49. Campbell, John Y. (ed.), 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092119, October.
    50. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2008. "How hard can it be? Inflation control around the world," Economics wp40, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    51. Jordi Galí & Mark J. Gertler, 2010. "International Dimensions of Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert07-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rahul Anand & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/200, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2009. "Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 409-430, February.
    4. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Optimal monetary policy in the presence of food price subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 551-575.
    5. Eswar Prasad & Boyang Zhang, 2015. "Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 21471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Susanto Basu & Pierre De Leo, 2016. "Should Central Banks Target Investment Prices?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 910, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 04 May 2017.
    7. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2020. "Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 221-234.
    8. Eswar S Prasad, 2014. "Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(3), pages 409-429, August.
    9. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Rafael Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Stephen O’Connell & Richard Peck, 2016. "Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 782-810.
    11. Teo, Wing Leong, 2009. "Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 301-311, August.
    12. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
    13. William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2022. "The Contribution of Food Subsidy Policy to Monetary Policy in India," Working Papers hal-02944209, HAL.
    14. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2023. "Price-setting heterogeneity and robust monetary policy in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    16. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    17. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    18. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Daniela Bragoli & Massimiliano Rigon & Francesco Zanetti, 2016. "Optimal Inflation Weights in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 357-383, June.
    20. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; core inflation; headline inflation; subsistence level; Inflation targeting; monetary policy framework; financial frictions; core inflation inflation targeting; headline inflation inflation targeting; food price inflation; headline inflation targeting regime result; headline inflation targeting rule; optimal price index; inflation expectation; Inflation; Sticky prices; Consumption; Price indexes; Africa; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.