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World Food Prices and Monetary Policy

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  • Luis Catão
  • Roberto Chang

Abstract

In recent years, large fluctuations in world food prices have renewed interest in the question of how monetary policy in small open economies should react to imported price shocks. We address this issue in an open economy setting similar to previous ones except that food plays a distinctive role in utility. A key novelty of our model is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to food price shocks. This has several consequences for observables and for policy. Under a variety of model calibrations, broad CPI targeting emerges as welfare-superior to alternative policy rules once the variance of food price shocks is as large as in real world data.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Catão & Roberto Chang, 2010. "World Food Prices and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 16563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Should food prices influence monetary policy?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-01-17 21:16:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Porqueddu Mario & Venditti Fabrizio, 2014. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Gelos, Gaston & Ustyugova, Yulia, 2017. "Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-47.
    3. Alberola, Enrique & Benigno, Gianluca, 2017. "Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 87-106.
    4. José de Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Papers wp359, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    5. Rahul Anand & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    7. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:5:p:1050-1066 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2012. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tommaso Monacelli, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 6-21, April.
    11. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    12. Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar S. & Zhang, Boyang, 2015. "What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 102-116.
    13. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "How to measure inflation in India?," Working Papers 11/83, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Rafael A Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks; the Role of the Asset Market Structure," IMF Working Papers 15/33, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Bhattacharya. Rudrani, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilising food inflation: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers 17/209, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    16. Dixon, Huw & Franklin, Jeremy & Millard, Stephen, 2014. "Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 499, Bank of England.
    17. Luis Catão & Roberto Chang, 2013. "Monetary Rules for Commodity Traders," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 52-91, April.
    18. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2014. "Has Asian emerging market monetary policy been too procyclical when responding to swings in commodity prices?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 129-153 Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Paolo Pesenti, 2013. "Theoretical notes on commodity prices and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 79-90 Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Equilibrium Determinacy and Inflation Measures for Interest Rate Rules," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 573-592, October.
    21. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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