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World food prices and monetary policy

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  • Catão, Luis A.V.
  • Chang, Roberto

Abstract

How should monetary policy respond to large fluctuations in world food prices? We study this question in an open economy model in which imported food has a larger weight in domestic consumption than abroad and international risk sharing can be imperfect. A key novelty is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to world food price shocks. This exacerbates the policy trade-off between stabilizing output prices vis a vis the real exchange rate, to an extent that depends on risk sharing and the price elasticity of exports. We characterize implications for dynamics, optimal monetary policy, and the relative performance of practical monetary rules. While CPI targeting and expected CPI targeting can dominate PPI targeting if international risk sharing is perfect, even seemingly mild departures from the latter make PPI targeting a winner.

Suggested Citation

  • Catão, Luis A.V. & Chang, Roberto, 2015. "World food prices and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-88.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:75:y:2015:i:c:p:69-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.12.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Porqueddu Mario & Venditti Fabrizio, 2014. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Gelos, Gaston & Ustyugova, Yulia, 2017. "Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-47.
    3. Alberola, Enrique & Benigno, Gianluca, 2017. "Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 87-106.
    4. José de Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Papers wp359, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    5. Rahul Anand & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    7. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2012. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Tommaso Monacelli, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 6-21, April.
    9. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    10. Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar S. & Zhang, Boyang, 2015. "What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 102-116.
    11. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "How to measure inflation in India?," Working Papers 11/83, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. Rafael A Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks; the Role of the Asset Market Structure," IMF Working Papers 15/33, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Bhattacharya, Rudrani, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilising food inflation: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers 17/209, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Dixon, Huw & Franklin, Jeremy & Millard, Stephen, 2014. "Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 499, Bank of England.
    15. Luis Catão & Roberto Chang, 2013. "Monetary Rules for Commodity Traders," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 52-91, April.
    16. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2014. "Has Asian emerging market monetary policy been too procyclical when responding to swings in commodity prices?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 129-153 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Paolo Pesenti, 2013. "Theoretical notes on commodity prices and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 79-90 Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Equilibrium Determinacy and Inflation Measures for Interest Rate Rules," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 573-592, October.
    19. repec:inu:caeprp:2013002 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Small open economy; Real exchange rates; Terms of trade;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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