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Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error

  • Basu, S.
  • Fernald, J.G.

Using data on gross output for two-digit manufacturing industries, we find that an increase in the output of one manufacturing sector has little or no significant effect on the productivity of other sectors. Using value-added data, however, we confirm the results of previous studies which find that output spillovers instead appear large. We provide an explanation for these differences, showing why, with imperfect competition, the use of value-added data leads to a spurious finding of large apparent external effects.

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Paper provided by Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory in its series Papers with number 93-22.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1993
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:michet:93-22
Contact details of provider: Postal:
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL THEORY, ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN U.S.A.

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  1. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October.
  2. Antonio Ciccone & Kiminori Matsuyama, 1992. "Start-up Costs and Pecuniary Externalities as Barriers to Economic Development," Discussion Papers 1031, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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  7. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1994. "Constant returns and small markups in U.S. manufacturing," International Finance Discussion Papers 483, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Sato, Kazuo, 1976. "The Meaning and Measurement of the Real Value Added Index," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 434-42, November.
  9. Jaffe, Adam B, 1986. "Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits, and Market Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 984-1001, December.
  10. Caballero, R.J. & Lyons, R.K., 1991. "External Effects in U.S. Procyclical Productivity," Papers 91-19, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  11. R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1991. "Seasonal Solow residuals and Christmas: a case for labor hoarding and increasing returns," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  16. repec:fth:harver:1487 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Productive Externalities And Cyclical Volatility," RCER Working Papers 245, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  23. Eric J. Bartelsman & Ricardo J. Caballero & Richard K. Lyons, 1991. "Short and Long Run Externalities," NBER Working Papers 3810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  25. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "Market Structure and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 285-338.
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  27. Weitzman, Martin L, 1982. "Increasing Returns and the Foundations of Unemployment Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 787-804, December.
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  29. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June.
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