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Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies

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  • Marc Pourroy
  • Benjamin Carton
  • Dramane Coulibaly

Abstract

The two episodes of food price surges in 2007 and 2011 followed by a drop in 2014 have been particularly challenging for developing and emerging economies’ central banks and have raised the question of how monetary authorities should react to such external relative price shocks. We investigate the optimal monetary policy that manages food price shocks. To this end, we develop a new-Keynesian small open-economy model that incorporates world food price shocks. We show that the optimal monetary policy depends on country income level. In low and medium income countries, overall consumer price targeting is optimal, while in high-income countries non-food inflation targeting is the best option. This result holds not only because food represents a significant share in total consumption in low and medium income countries, but also because of food good composition. Indeed, the poorer the country, the higher the share of purely domestic food in consumption and the more detrimental lack of attention to the evolution in food prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2016-q2-146-6
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    1. repec:mth:jsss88:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:28-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, 2014. "Raising the Temperature on Food Prices: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Social Cost of Carbon," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170648, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:551-575 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bhattacharya. Rudrani, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilising food inflation: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers 17/209, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Bhattacharya, Rudrani, 2016. "How does Supply Chain Distortion affect Food Inflation in India?," Working Papers 16/173, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Commodities; Food Prices; DSGE Models;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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