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Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth

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  • FEDERICO RAVENNA
  • FABIO M. NATALUCCI

Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy where productivity growth differentials between tradable and non‐tradable sectors result in an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate—the so‐called Balassa‐Samuelson effect. The paper explores the dynamic properties of this economy and the welfare implications of alternative policy rules. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation limits the range of policy rules that, with a given probability, keep inflation and exchange rate within predetermined numerical targets. We also find that the B–S effect raises by an order of magnitude the welfare loss associated with policy rules that prescribe active exchange rate management.

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  • Federico Ravenna & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2008. "Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 243-271, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:2-3:p:243-271
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00112.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Bing & Liu, Qing, 2017. "On the choice of monetary policy rules for China: A Bayesian DSGE approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-185.
    3. Kitano Shigeto & Takaku Kenya, 2018. "Capital controls as a credit policy tool in a small open economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Jesus M. Garcia-Iglesias & Rebeca Muñoz Torres & George Saridakis, 2013. "Did the Bank of Mexico follow a systematic behaviour in its transition to an inflation targeting regime?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1205-1213, July.
    5. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    6. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Post-Print halshs-00881359, HAL.
    7. Kitano, Shigeto & Takaku, Kenya, 2020. "Capital controls, macroprudential regulation, and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2016. "External Debt and Taylor Rules in a Small Open Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 541-559, December.
    9. Simone Auer, 2023. "Financial globalization and monetary transmission," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 721-760, May.
    10. Lombardo, Giovanni & Ravenna, Federico, 2014. "Openness and optimal monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 153-172.
    11. Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Criteria and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv226, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    13. Qiao Wang & Haizhen Yang & Xiangjuan Cheng, 2020. "Impact of Global Low Interest Rates to the Capital Flows and Financial Vulnerability of Small Open Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(4), pages 449-468, April.
    14. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2015. "Monetary policy, incomplete asset markets, and welfare in a small open economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 112-121.
    15. Robert Ambrisko, 2015. "A Small Open Economy with the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp547, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    16. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2017. "Capital Controls and Financial Frictions in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 761-793, September.
    17. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2013. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04141226, HAL.
    18. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2018. "Capital Controls, Monetary Policy, And Balance Sheets In A Small Open Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 859-874, April.
    19. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    20. Yin, Zhichao & Peng, Hongfeng & Xiao, Weiguo & Xiao, Zumian, 2022. "Capital control and monetary policy coordination: Tobin tax revisited," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    21. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2009/234, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    23. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
    24. Hella Guerchi Mehri & Faycal Ben Ameur, 2016. "The Hybrid Approach Of Inflation Targeting:What Opportunities For An Emerging Economy Like Tunisia?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(3), pages 25-42.
    25. Horváth, Roman & Maršál, Aleš, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching," FinMaP-Working Papers 22, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.

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