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How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?


  • Garcia, Carlos J.
  • Restrepo, Jorge E.
  • Roger, Scott


A DSGE model is used to examine whether including the exchange rate in the central bank’s policy rule can improve economic performance. Smoothing the exchange rate helps both financially-robust economies and financially-vulnerable emerging economies in handling risk premium shocks and, given a small weight placed on the exchange rate, the effects on inflation and output volatility are minimal with demand and cost-push shocks. Financially-vulnerable economies are especially likely to benefit from exchange rate smoothing due to perverse movements of the exchange rate they experience when hit by demand shocks and being more prone to risk premium shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:7:p:1590-1617 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.06.017

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    1. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Jörg Urban, 2014. "How might EME central banks respond to the influence of global monetary factors?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 45-69 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Fuentes H., Fernando & García, Carlos J., 2016. "The business cycle and copper mining in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. Richard T. Froyen & Alfred V Guender, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in Open-Economy Taylor Rules: A Re-Assessment," Working Papers in Economics 16/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Jesus M. Garcia-Iglesias & Rebeca Muñoz Torres & George Saridakis, 2013. "Did the Bank of Mexico follow a systematic behaviour in its transition to an inflation targeting regime?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1205-1213, July.
    5. repec:udc:esteco:v:44:y:2017:i:2:p:97-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
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    9. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:243-254 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    11. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2014. "Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 104-128.
    12. Cabral,Rene & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Mollick,Andre Varella, 2016. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7712, The World Bank.
    13. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Republic of Serbia; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/207, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Nuttathum Chutasripanich & James Yetman, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention: strategies and effectiveness," BIS Working Papers 499, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo D., 2013. "Exchange rate intervention in small open economies: The role of risk premium and commodity price shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 424-447.
    17. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    18. Christian H Ebeke & Armand Fouejieu, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 15/228, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Michael B Devereux & James Yetman, 2014. "Responding to exchange rates in a globalised world," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 97-117 Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Hella Guerchi Mehri & Faycal Ben Ameur, 2016. "The Hybrid Approach Of Inflation Targeting:What Opportunities For An Emerging Economy Like Tunisia?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(3), pages 25-42.

    More about this item


    Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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