IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan

Listed author(s):
  • Haider, Adnan
  • Khan, Safdar Ullah

This paper estimates a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Pakistan using Bayesian simulation approach. Model setup is based on new Keynesian framework, characterized by nominal rigidity in prices with habit formation in household’s consumption. The core objective is to study whether an estimated small open economy DSGE model provides a realistic behavior about the structure Pakistan economy with fully articulated description of the monetary policy transmission mechanism vis-à-vis domestic firm’s price setting behavior. To do so, we analyze the impulse responses of key macro variables; domestic inflation, imported inflation, output, consumption, interest rate, exchange rate, term of trade to different structural/exogenous shocks. From several interesting results, few are; (a) high inflation in Pakistan do not hit domestic consumption significantly; (b) Central bank of Pakistan responds to high inflation by increasing the policy rate by 100 to 200 bps; (c) exchange rate appreciates in both the cases of high domestic and imported inflation; (d) tight monetary policy stance helps to curb domestic inflation as well as imported inflation but appreciates exchange rate significantly (f) pass through of exchange rate to domestic inflation is very low; finally parameter value of domestic price stickiness shows that around 24 percent domestic firms do not re-optimize their prices which implies averaged price contract is about two quarters.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12977/1/MPRA_paper_12977.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12977.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 06 Nov 2008
Date of revision: 17 Jan 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12977
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window

  1. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
  2. Marcos R. de Castro & Solange N. Gouvea & André Minella & Rafael C. dos Santos & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2011. "SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach," Working Papers Series 239, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
  4. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
  8. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  9. Geweke, John, 1996. "Monte carlo simulation and numerical integration," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 731-800 Elsevier.
  10. repec:fth:harver:1470 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2010. "Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 145-176.
  12. David Romer, 1993. "The New Keynesian Synthesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 5-22, Winter.
  13. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  15. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Working Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 1991. "An Empirical "Dependent Economy" Model for Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 91/102, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Christopher Otrok, 2000. "On Measuring the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1094, Econometric Society.
  18. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  19. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  21. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  22. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  24. Mihai Copaciu & Florian Neagu & Horia Braun-Erdei, 2010. "Survey evidence on price-setting patterns of Romanian firms," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 235-247.
  25. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
  26. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
  28. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  30. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a modern macroeconomic model usable for policy analysis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 94-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  31. Shanaka J Peiris & Magnus Saxegaard, 2007. "An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/282, International Monetary Fund.
  32. John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  33. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2004. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," 2004 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Camilo E Tovar, 2005. "The mechanics of devaluations and the output response in a DSGE model: how relevant is the balance sheet effect?," BIS Working Papers 192, Bank for International Settlements.
  35. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  36. N. G. Mankiw., 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
  37. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Working Papers 2007-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  38. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
  39. McCarthy, F Desmond & Taylor, Lance, 1980. "Macro Food Policy Planning: A General Equilibrium Model for Pakistan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(1), pages 107-121, February.
  40. Martin Melecky & Daniel Buncic, 2005. "An Estimated, New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," Macroeconomics 0511026, EconWPA.
  41. Montoro Llamosas, Carlos, 2005. "Dolarización Parcial," Revista Moneda, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 131, pages 5-9.
  42. Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 2001. "Tariff Reduction and Functional Income Distribution in Pakistan: A CGE Model," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 2001:10, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  43. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Koop, Gary M & Poirier, Dale J & Tobias, Justin, 2007. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  45. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 13542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, December.
  47. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  48. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  49. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Christopher A. Sims, 1996. "Macroeconomics and Methodology," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 105-120, Winter.
  51. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  52. Chishti, Salim U. & Hasan, M. Aynul & Mahmud, Syed F., 1992. "Macroeconometric modelling and Pakistan's economy : A vector autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 353-370, April.
  53. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-1660, December.
  54. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  55. Kwapil, Claudia & Baumgartner, Josef & Scharler, Johann, 2005. "The price-setting behavior of Austrian firms: some survey evidence," Working Paper Series 0464, European Central Bank.
  56. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2006. "Forecasting Canadian Time Series With the New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 382, Central Bank of Chile.
  57. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), pages -, March.
  58. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  59. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework Princeton University Press.
  60. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
  61. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Staff Report 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  62. Kolasa, Marcin, 2009. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1245-1269, November.
  63. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
  64. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  66. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
  67. Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 1999. "Social Accounting Matrix of Pakistan for 1989-90," PIDE-Working Papers 1999:171, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  68. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
  69. Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its Philosophy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 213-242, June.
  70. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
  71. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances?," NBER Working Papers 14547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  74. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  75. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  76. Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "The Global Economy Model: Theoretical Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 243-284, June.
  77. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  78. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  79. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2008. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Working Paper Series 25, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  80. Ali Dib & Kevin Moran, 2005. "Forecasting with the New-Keynesian Model: An Experiment with Canadian Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 235, Society for Computational Economics.
  81. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
  82. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
  83. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  84. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  85. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12977. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.