IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedmqr/y1986ifallp9-22nv.10no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Theory ahead of business cycle measurement

Author

Listed:
  • Edward C. Prescott

Abstract

Recent developments in business cycle theory are reviewed. The principal finding is that the growth model, which was developed to account for the secular patterns in important economic aggregates, displays the business cycle phenomena once it incorporates the observed randomness in the rate of technological advance. The amplitudes and serial correlation properties of fluctuations in output and employment that the growth model predicts match those historically experienced in the United States. Further, the model continues to display the growth facts it was developed to explain.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Fall), pages 9-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1986:i:fall:p:9-22:n:v.10no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1042.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1042.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1984. "Macroeconomic analyses and microeconomic analyses of labor supply," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 117-156, January.
    4. Alan S. Blinder, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-453.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    6. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. David Cass, 1964. "Optimum Economic Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation: A Turnpike Theorem," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 178, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    10. Gilbert Ghez & Gary S. Becker, 1975. "The Allocation of Time and Goods over the Life Cycle," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ghez75-1.
    11. Walter Dolde & James Tobin, 1971. "Wealth, Liquidity, and Consumption," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 311, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    13. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    14. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78.
    15. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    16. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    17. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    18. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-380, December.
    19. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    2. Lores, Francisco Xavier, 2001. "Growth and cyclical fluctuations in Spanish macroeconomic series," UC3M Working papers. Economics we014609, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736.
    4. Edward C. Prescott, 2006. "Nobel Lecture: The Transformation of Macroeconomic Policy and Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 203-235, April.
    5. Murat Arik, 2007. "The Role of Career Colleges in Tennessee: Their Size, Contribution to Workforce Earnings, and Impact on Tennessee's Economy," Studies 200702, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Neoclassical vs. endogenous growth analysis: an overview," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 41-71.
    7. Frédéric Lordon, 1991. "Théorie de la croissance : quelques développements récents [Première partie : la croissance récente]," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 157-211.
    8. Daniel G. Swaine, 2001. "Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \"deep\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 01-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    10. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2005. "Regional Convergence of Income and Labor Productivity in Mexico," Urban/Regional 0512016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. John Stachurski, 2009. "Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012774.
    12. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrew T. Young & Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy, 2004. "Heterogeneity in Convergence Rates and Income Determination across U.S. States: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2004-1, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    15. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Externalities in R&D: a route to endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Robert J. Barro, 1994. "Democracy & Growth," NBER Working Papers 4909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Francisco de Castro Fernández & José Manuel González Mínguez, 2008. "The composition of public finances and long-term growth: a macroeconomic approach," Occasional Papers 0809, Banco de España.
    18. Alexandre Flávio Silva Andrada, 2011. "Uma Breve História Sobre A Abordagem Dedesequilíbrio Na Economia," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 233, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Seethepalli, Kalpana & Bramati, Maria Caterina & Veredas, David, 2008. "How relevant is infrastructure to growth in East Asia ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4597, The World Bank.
    20. ERREYGERS, Guido & FEREDE, Tadele, 2009. "The end of subsistence farming: Growth dynamics and investments in human and environmental capital in rural Ethiopia," Working Papers 2009008, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    21. Aykut Kibritçioglu, 2002. "On the Smithian origins of "new" trade and growth theories," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles;

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Quantitative Macroeconomics and Real Business Cycles (QM&RBC)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1986:i:fall:p:9-22:n:v.10no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jannelle Ruswick The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Jannelle Ruswick to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.