IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedbwp/01-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \"deep\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel G. Swaine

Abstract

Lucas (1976) criticized Keynesian models because of parametric instability. For many economists, the \"Lucas critique\" provided a reason to replace the Keynesian approach with equilibrium models of the business cycle. One example of the equilibrium approach is the Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. However, RBC models have not been subjected to the same scrutiny of tests of parameter instability. We present a prototypical RBC model and subject it to structural change tests. Our results document evidence of extensive parameter instability. Thus, the \"Lucas critique\" is applicable and we conclude that the single representative agent class of RBC models has an invalid structural form.>

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel G. Swaine, 2001. "Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \"deep\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 01-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:01-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2001/wp015.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2001/wp015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Saikkonen, Pentti & Ripatti, Antti, 2000. "On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 92-121, Supplemen.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    5. Pentti Saikkonen & Antti Ripatti, 2000. "On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(s1), pages 92-121.
    6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    7. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    8. William A. Brock & Leonard J. Mirman, 2001. "Optimal Economic Growth And Uncertainty: The Discounted Case," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 1, pages 3-37, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    11. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    13. Hideki Nakamura, 1996. "Testing The Structural Stability Of A Risk Aversion Parameter In The Foreign Exchange Market," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 286-296, September.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
    16. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January.
    17. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-1174, December.
    18. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-273, April.
    19. Browning, Martin, 1991. "A Simple Nonadditive Preference Structure for Models of Household Behavior over Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 607-637, June.
    20. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. Harcourt,G. C., 1972. "Some Cambridge Controversies in the Theory of Capital," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521096720.
    22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    23. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
    24. Berndt, Ernst R & Darrough, Masako N & Diewert, W E, 1977. "Flexible Functional Forms and Expenditure Distributions: An Application to Canadian Consumer Demand Functions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(3), pages 651-675, October.
    25. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    26. McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-290, May.
    27. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    28. Muellbauer, John, 1976. "Community Preferences and the Representative Consumer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 979-999, September.
    29. James B. Bullard, 1994. "Measures of money and the quantity theory," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 19-30.
    30. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    31. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    32. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    33. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1995. "Nonstationarity of Regressors and Tests on Real-Interest-Rate Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 47-51, January.
    34. Arthur Lewbel, 1989. "Exact Aggregation and a Representative Consumer," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 621-633.
    35. John Muellbauer, 1975. "Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 525-543.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel G. Swaine, 2008. "Estimating the Speed of Convergence in the Neoclassical Growth Model: An MLE Estimation of Structural Parameters Using the Stochastic Neoclassical Growth Model, Time-Series Data, and the Kalman Filter," Working Papers 0810, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    2. José Luis Torres Chacon, 2015. "Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 2, number 54, July.
    3. José Luis Torres Chacon, 2015. "Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models [Second Edition, Paperback]," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 2, number 44.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, June.
    7. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
    8. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2007. "Methods to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2599-2636, August.
    9. Daniel G. Swaine, 2008. "Estimating the Speed of Convergence in the Neoclassical Growth Model: An MLE Estimation of Structural Parameters Using the Stochastic Neoclassical Growth Model, Time-Series Data, and the Kalman Filter," Working Papers 0810, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    10. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
    11. Daniel G. Swaine, 1999. "Is the U.S. economy characterized by endogenous growth?: a time-series test of two stochastic growth models," Working Papers 99-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    13. A. Johri & M-A. Letendre, 2001. "Labour Market Dynamics in RBC Models," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-03, McMaster University.
    14. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    15. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
    17. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Externalities in R&D: a route to endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    19. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Fall), pages 9-22.
    20. Christiano, L.J. & Vigfusson, R.J., 1999. "Maximum Likelihood in the Frequency Domain: a Time to Build Example," Papers 9901, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Business forecasting;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:01-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.