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Théorie de la croissance : quelques développements récents [Première partie : la croissance récente]

  • Frédéric Lordon
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    [eng] Growth theory has experienced a recent revival. But far from being restricted to the two major schools — neoclassical and post-Keynesian — of the sixties, it is developping in numerous and varied directions. Nevertheless these can be ordered under two major headings: the first one deals with the interaction between growth and cycle; the second one underlines the importance of increasing returns in the growth process and works within a Smith- Young-Kaldor tradition. The first part of this survey adresses the problem of cyclical growth. It examines successively real business cycle models, endogenous fluctuations à la Goodwin and chaotic growth processes. Real business cycles (RBC) theory starts with the optimal growth model submitted to exogenous stochastic shocks. Agents' rational reactions to these shocks generate persistence so that Pareto optimality is preserved all along the fluctuations. Within a heterodox tradition, Goodwin's growth cycle model has originated a research program which, contrary to RBC theory, underlines the endogeneity of the fluctuations. The cycle results from a « reserve army » effect on wages and from the interaction between accumulation and distribution. This program is characterized by a systematic use of non-linear dynamics. The last section shows how the possibilities open by a recently develop- ped formal tool — deterministic chaos — can be used in the field of growth theory. [fre] Les théories de la croissance connaissent depuis quelques années une ferveur nouvelle. Loin de s'en tenir aux deux grands courants — néoclassique et post-keynésien — de la théorie de la croissance des années soixante, ce regain d'intérêt a donné lieu à des développements dans des directions nombreuses et variées. On peut cependant les ordonner sous deux grands thèmes fédérateurs : le premier examine l'interaction de la croissance et du cycle, le deuxième souligne l'importance des rendements croissants dans les processus de croissance et revisite une tradition qui passait par Smith, Young et Kaldor. La première partie de cette revue de littérature est consacrée à la croissance cyclique. Elle traite successivement des modèles de cycles réels (Real Business Cycles, ou RBC), des modèles de fluctuations à la Goodwin et des processus de croissance chaotique. Le courant des RBC reprend le modèle de croissance optimale qu'il soumet à des chocs stochastiques exogènes. Ce sont les réponses rationnelles des agents à ces perturbations qui engendrent des effets de persistance, de sorte que l'optimalité paré- tienne est conservée tout au long des fluctuations. Dans une tradition hétérodoxe, le modèle de Goodwin a ouvert une direction de recherche qui, à l'inverse des RBC, insistent sur le caractère endogène des fluctuations. Le cycle est produit par l'influence de « l'armée de réserve industrielle » sur l'évolution des salaires réels et par l'interaction accumulation /répartition. Cette série de travaux se signale par l'utilisation systématique des outils de la dynamique non linéaire. Enfin la dernière section fait état de l'utilisation par les économistes, dans le domaine de la croissance, des possibilités offertes par un outil formel récemment développé : le chaos déterministe.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Observations et diagnostics économiques : revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 36 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 157-211

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1991_num_36_1_1246
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1991.1246
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