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contracts de salaire, croissance endogene et fluctuations

  • ambler, s.
  • cardia, e.
  • phaneuf, l.

We develop, calibrate and simulate a model of the business cycle which encompasses several different classes of modern business cycle models. The model includes elements of endogenous growth, monopolistic competition in the goods market, and nominal rigidities due to non-contingent wage contracts. This enables us to highlight the crucial assumptions of these approaches and to what extent they generate predictions which are in line with the stylized facts. We pay close attention to labor market phenomena; the correlation between labor productivity and employment, and the relative variances of fluctuations in productivity and employment. Since the time of Keynes, Dunlop and Tarshis, the ability of business cycle models to reproduce the observed comovements of these variables has been considered an important test. Nous analysons, calibrons et simulons un modèle des fluctuations économiques qui est très général et qui permet de réunir plusieurs approches modernes à la modélisation du cycle économique. Le modèle emboîte des hypothèses de croissance endogène, de concurrence monopolistique sur le marché des biens et services, et de rigidités nominales par le biais de contrats de salaire non contingents. Ceci nous permet de mettre en évidence les hypothèses importantes de ces approches et d’analyser dans quelle mesure elles engendrent des prédictions qui sont conformes aux faits. Nous prêtons une attention particulière à des phénomènes associés au fonctionnement du marché du travail : la corrélation entre la productivité de la main-d’oeuvre et l’emploi, et la variance de l’emploi par rapport à celle de la productivité. L’explication de ces comouvements est considérée depuis l’époque de Keynes, Dunlop et Tarshis comme un test particulièrement exigeant.

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Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9124.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:9124
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  1. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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