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Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan

  • Rizwana Siddiqui

    (PIDE)

  • A. R. Kemal

Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios : (1) labour is homogeneous; (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicators.

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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Development Economics Working Papers with number 22219.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:eab:develo:22219
Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
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  1. Sohail J. Malik & Mohammad Mushtaq & Hina Nazli, 1989. "An Analysis of Production Relations in the Large-scale Textile Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 27-42.
  2. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1998. "Exchange and Capital Controls As Barriers to Trade," IMF Working Papers 98/81, International Monetary Fund.
  3. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 1999. "The Impact of Tariff Reforms on Income Distribution in Pakistan: A CGE-based Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 789-804.
  5. Adrian Wood, 1995. "How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 57-80, Summer.
  6. Buffie, Edward, 1985. "Quantitative restrictions and the welfare effects of capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 291-303, November.
  7. Wood, Adrian, 1998. "Globalisation and the Rise in Labour Market Inequalities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1463-82, September.
  8. Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 1999. "Social Accounting Matrix of Pakistan for 1989-90," PIDE-Working Papers 1999:171, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  9. A. R. Kemal, 1981. "Substitution Elasticities in the Large- Scale Manufacturing Industries of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 1-36.
  10. Ashfaque H. Khan, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: Policies and Trends," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 959-985.
  11. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
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