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Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options

  • Paul Dorosh

    (World Bank, Washington, DC.)

  • Abdul Salam

    (Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Islamabad.)

This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on the overall consumer price index. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs.

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File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2008/Volume1/71-87.pdf
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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 47 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 71-87

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:47:y:2008:i:1:p:71-87
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  1. Roland-Holst, David & Tarp, Finn, 2003. "Globalization, Economic Reform, and Structural Price Transmission: SAM Decomposition Techniques with an empirical application to Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dorosh, Paul & Vald├ęs, Alberto, 1990. "Effects of exchange rate and trade policies on agriculture in Pakistan:," Research reports 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  4. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
  5. Dorosh, Paul A., 2001. "Trade Liberalization and National Food Security: Rice Trade between Bangladesh and India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 673-689, April.
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