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Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis

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  • Paul Dorosh

    (South Asia Rural Division, WOURLD Bank, Washington, D.C.)

  • Muhammad Khan Niazi

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Hina Nazli

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

In spite of substantial growth in agricultural GDP in the 1990s, rural poverty rates in Pakistan did not decline. This paper explores the reasons for this lack of correlation between increases in agricultural production and poverty reduction through an analysis of growth linkages using a 2001-02 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based semi-inputoutput model. Model simulations indicate that expansion of traditional crop agriculture can significantly benefit rural poor farmers. However, because of skewed distribution of land and earnings from land, landless agricultural labourers and the rural non-farm poor (who, together, account for 61 percent of the rural poor) do not benefit directly from growth in the crop sector. In the absence of a change in the structure of rural incomes and employment, further measures will likely be needed for rapid poverty reduction in Pakistan, including greater efforts to boost the livestock sector, expansion of the rural non-farm economy (in addition to agricultural growth-induced linkage effects), and targeted interventions to the poorest rural households.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:249-275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Henning Krause & Anja Faße & Ulrike Grote, 2019. "Nutrient-Dense Crops for Rural and Peri-Urban Smallholders in Kenya—A Regional Social Accounting Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Dorosh, Paul & Malik, Sohail & Krausova, Marika, 2010. "Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security following the 2010 Pakistan floods: Insights from South Asian experience," IFPRI discussion papers 1028, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Gustavo Anriquez & Alberto Valdes, 2006. "Determinants of Farm Revenue in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 281-301.
    4. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    5. World Bank, 2012. "Pakistan - Strategic Environmental, Poverty and Social Assessment of Trade and Transport Sector Reforms," World Bank Publications - Reports 12316, The World Bank Group.
    6. Hazell, Peter B.R., 2009. "The Asian Green Revolution:," IFPRI discussion papers 911, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Paul Dorosh & Abdul Salam, 2008. "Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 71-87.
    8. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Jesper Kühl, 2010. "The (Evolving) Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-036, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Bilal Khan & Toqueer Akhtar & Toqueer Akhtar & Toqueer Akhtar, 2015. "An Assessment into the Risk Factors in Inter-Temporal Sustainability of Cropping Sector: Findings of A Survey In Pakistan," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2704906, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. Ghulam Samad & Naseem Faraz & Haroon S. Awan, 2022. "Tariff differential subsidy (TDS) effects and welfare gains in Pakistan," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 373-392, December.
    11. Dorosh, Paul A. & Malik, Sohail J., 2006. "Transitions Out of Poverty: Drivers of Real Income Growth for the Poor in Rural Pakistan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25387, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    13. Darío Debowicz & Paul Dorosh & Hamza Haider & Sherman Robinson, 2013. "A Disaggregated and Macro-consistent Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Debowicz, Dario & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Haider, Syed Hamza, 2012. "A 2007-08 social accounting matrix for Pakistan:," PSSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Amara Amjad Hashmi & Maqbool H. Sial & Maaida Hussain Hashmi, 2008. "Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 909-923.
    16. Siddiqui, Rizwana, 2006. "Welfare and Poverty Implications of Global Rice and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 90194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    17. Hasan, Faizan ul & Fatima, Bareerah & Heaney-Mustafa, Sandra, 2021. "A critique of successful elements of existing on-farm irrigation water management initiatives in Pakistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    18. World Bank, 2007. "Pakistan : Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Publications - Reports 7984, The World Bank Group.

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