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Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Dorosh

    (South Asia Rural Division, WOURLD Bank, Washington, D.C.)

  • Muhammad Khan Niazi

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Hina Nazli

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

In spite of substantial growth in agricultural GDP in the 1990s, rural poverty rates in Pakistan did not decline. This paper explores the reasons for this lack of correlation between increases in agricultural production and poverty reduction through an analysis of growth linkages using a 2001-02 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based semi-inputoutput model. Model simulations indicate that expansion of traditional crop agriculture can significantly benefit rural poor farmers. However, because of skewed distribution of land and earnings from land, landless agricultural labourers and the rural non-farm poor (who, together, account for 61 percent of the rural poor) do not benefit directly from growth in the crop sector. In the absence of a change in the structure of rural incomes and employment, further measures will likely be needed for rapid poverty reduction in Pakistan, including greater efforts to boost the livestock sector, expansion of the rural non-farm economy (in addition to agricultural growth-induced linkage effects), and targeted interventions to the poorest rural households.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:249-275
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    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume3/249-275.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Dorosh & Steven Haggblade, 2003. "Growth Linkages, Price Effects and Income Distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 207-235, June.
    2. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2006. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:9, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. Mellor, John W, 1978. "Food Price Policy and Income Distribution in Low-Income Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Farm productivity and rural poverty in India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 62-85.
    5. C. L. G. Bell & P. B. R. Hazell, 1980. "Measuring the Indirect Effects of an Agricultural Investment Project on Its Surrounding Region," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(1), pages 75-86.
    6. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 2002. "Why has economic growth been more pro-poor in some states of India than others?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 381-400, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dorosh, Paul & Malik, Sohail & Krausova, Marika, 2010. "Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security following the 2010 Pakistan floods: Insights from South Asian experience," IFPRI discussion papers 1028, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Gustavo Anriquez & Alberto Valdes, 2006. "Determinants of Farm Revenue in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 281-301.
    3. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    4. World Bank, 2012. "Pakistan - Strategic Environmental, Poverty and Social Assessment of Trade and Transport Sector Reforms," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12316, The World Bank.
    5. Paul Dorosh & Abdul Salam, 2008. "Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 71-87.
    6. Bilal Khan & Toqueer Akhtar & Toqueer Akhtar & Toqueer Akhtar, 2015. "An Assessment into the Risk Factors in Inter-Temporal Sustainability of Cropping Sector: Findings of A Survey In Pakistan," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2704906, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    7. Dorosh, Paul A. & Malik, Sohail J., 2006. "Transitions Out of Poverty: Drivers of Real Income Growth for the Poor in Rural Pakistan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25387, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. DarĂ­o Debowicz & Paul Dorosh & Hamza Haider & Sherman Robinson, 2013. "A Disaggregated and Macro-consistent Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Debowicz, Dario & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Haider, Syed Hamza, 2012. "A 2007-08 social accounting matrix for Pakistan:," PSSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Amara Amjad Hashmi & Maqbool H. Sial & Maaida Hussain Hashmi, 2008. "Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 909-923.
    11. World Bank, 2007. "Pakistan : Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7984, The World Bank.

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