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Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis

  • Paul Dorosh

    (South Asia Rural Division, WOURLD Bank, Washington, D.C.)

  • Muhammad Khan Niazi

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Hina Nazli

    (Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

In spite of substantial growth in agricultural GDP in the 1990s, rural poverty rates in Pakistan did not decline. This paper explores the reasons for this lack of correlation between increases in agricultural production and poverty reduction through an analysis of growth linkages using a 2001-02 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based semi-inputoutput model. Model simulations indicate that expansion of traditional crop agriculture can significantly benefit rural poor farmers. However, because of skewed distribution of land and earnings from land, landless agricultural labourers and the rural non-farm poor (who, together, account for 61 percent of the rural poor) do not benefit directly from growth in the crop sector. In the absence of a change in the structure of rural incomes and employment, further measures will likely be needed for rapid poverty reduction in Pakistan, including greater efforts to boost the livestock sector, expansion of the rural non-farm economy (in addition to agricultural growth-induced linkage effects), and targeted interventions to the poorest rural households.

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File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume3/249-275.pdf
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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 42 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 249-275

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:249-275
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  1. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Farm productivity and rural poverty in India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 62-85.
  2. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2006. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:9, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  3. Mellor, John W, 1978. "Food Price Policy and Income Distribution in Low-Income Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, October.
  4. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 2002. "Why has economic growth been more pro-poor in some states of India than others?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 381-400, August.
  5. Paul Dorosh & Steven Haggblade, 2003. "Growth Linkages, Price Effects and Income Distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 207-235, June.
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