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Welfare and Poverty Implications of Global Rice and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation for Pakistan

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  • Siddiqui, Rizwana

Abstract

The objective of the research is to examine the macroeconomic, welfare and poverty effects of global full and partial liberalization in rice trade and agriculture trade in Pakistan. I conducted simulations in a CGE static framework using data from 2002 social accounting matrix. I incorporate both supply and demand side factors affecting Pakistan’s agriculture trade with a focus on rice trade. The results at the macro level suggest that the trade liberalization of rice makes the traditionally inward looking sectors such as agriculture and services more open. However, in the long run it benefit more the most open sector—industry. The results indicate that liberalization of trade in agriculture and rice both benefit to all households especially to farm households in rural area. The welfare and poverty indicators –equivalent variation and FGT indices- improve for majority of households. The results also show that both rice only and agriculture liberalization increase disparity between rich and poor. Pakistan as a whole is better off after all trade shocks. However intensity of shocks differ across five experiments. Global full liberalization of rice trade has more favorable effects in terms of welfare and poverty in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddiqui, Rizwana, 2006. "Welfare and Poverty Implications of Global Rice and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 90194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:90194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caesar B. Cororaton & John Cockburn & Erwin Corong, 2005. "Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty inthe Philippines: a CGE Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2005-03, PEP-MPIA.
    2. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
    3. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
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    1. Siddiqui, Rizwana, 2009. "Pakistan: Migration, Remittances, and Development," MPRA Paper 90152, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    2. Ul Haque, Nadeem & Siddiqui, Rizwana, 2007. "Nominal and Effective Rates of Protection by Industry in Pakistan: A Tariff Based Analysis," MPRA Paper 90347, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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