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Assessing the Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis in Developing Countries: the Case of Uruguay

Author

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  • Carmen Estrades
  • Cecilia Llambi

Abstract

This paper uses a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE) linked to a microsimulation model to analyze how the global crisis and some adopted policy responses may have affected the Uruguayan economy. The focus is on the trade channel and foreign capital flows, since they are the most important mechanisms through which the global crisis affected the Uruguayan economy. The crisis had a strong impact on exports and fixed investment. Poorest households would be the most affected, as they face a stronger reduction in real wages and a rise in unemployment. We find a negative impact on extreme poverty, but not on moderate poverty, as households near the poverty line would benefit from the fall in some consumer prices. A policy based in increasing current public consumption does moderately counteract some negative impacts of the crisis, but benefits mainly skilled workers, and does not act directly towards the most affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Estrades & Cecilia Llambi, 2011. "Assessing the Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis in Developing Countries: the Case of Uruguay," Working Papers MPIA 2011-16, PEP-MPIA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2011-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marisa Carla Bucheli Anaya & Cecilia González Rodríguez-Villamil, 2012. "An estimation of the wage curve for Uruguay," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.
    2. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    3. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, March.
    4. Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Arbache, Jorge Saba, 2003. "The Impacts of Trade on the Brazilian Labor Market: A CGE Model Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1581-1595, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global economic crisis; trade shock; fiscal response; Uruguay; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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