Assessing the Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis in Developing Countries: the Case of Uruguay
This paper uses a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE) linked to a microsimulation model to analyze how the global crisis and some adopted policy responses may have affected the Uruguayan economy. The focus is on the trade channel and foreign capital flows, since they are the most important mechanisms through which the global crisis affected the Uruguayan economy. The crisis had a strong impact on exports and fixed investment. Poorest households would be the most affected, as they face a stronger reduction in real wages and a rise in unemployment. We find a negative impact on extreme poverty, but not on moderate poverty, as households near the poverty line would benefit from the fall in some consumer prices. A policy based in increasing current public consumption does moderately counteract some negative impacts of the crisis, but benefits mainly skilled workers, and does not act directly towards the most affected.
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- Marisa Carla Bucheli Anaya & Cecilia González Rodríguez-Villamil, 2012.
"An estimation of the wage curve for Uruguay,"
REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA,
UN - RCE - CID, June.
- Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Arbache, Jorge Saba, 2003. "The Impacts of Trade on the Brazilian Labor Market: A CGE Model Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1581-1595, September.
- Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1990.
" The Wage Curve,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 215-35.
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