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Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India

Author

Listed:
  • Shutes, Lindsay
  • Ganesh-Kumar, Anand
  • Meijerink, Gerdien W.

Abstract

The general perception is that high food prices in India have increased poverty and that trade reforms will further worsen poverty. We compare Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures for various scenarios of grain price swings with and without trade reform, using price and income effects for 32 representative households computed from a global economic model and a model of India's economy. The results suggest that a rise in the global rice price actually provides strong opportunities for poverty alleviation. Global trade reform reinforces this effect for all rural population groups. An increase in urban poverty partly offsets the overall poverty reduction. While India's trade measures effectively isolate sectors from swings in global markets, they also cause India to miss opportunities to benefit from buoyant global prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Shutes, Lindsay & Ganesh-Kumar, Anand & Meijerink, Gerdien W., 2012. "Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India," MPRA Paper 40982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40982
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu, 2006. "Does Trade Liberalisation Lead to Poverty Alleviation? a CGE Microsimulation Approach for Zimbabwe," Working Papers MPIA 2006-18, PEP-MPIA.
    2. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 2011. "Has India's Economic Growth Become More Pro-Poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 157-189, February.
    3. Caesar B. Cororaton & John Cockburn & Erwin Corong, 2005. "Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty inthe Philippines: a CGE Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2005-03, PEP-MPIA.
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    5. Parikh, Kirit S. & Narayana, N. S. S. & Panda, Manoj & Kumar, A. Ganesh, 1997. "Agricultural trade liberalization: growth, welfare and large country effects," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, October.
    6. A. Ganesh-Kumar & Manoj K. Panda & Mary E. Burfisher, 2006. "Reforms in Indian agro-processing and agriculture sectors in the context of unilateral and multilateral trade agreements," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; food prices; trade; CGE analysis; India; household analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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