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Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab

  • Amara Amjad Hashmi

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha.)

  • Maqbool H. Sial

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha.)

  • Maaida Hussain Hashmi

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha.)

Poverty is widespread in the rural areas, where the people are in a state of human deprivation with regard to incomes, clothing, housing, health care, education, sanitary facilities and human rights. Nearly 61 percent of the country’s populations live in rural areas. In Pakistan poverty has been increased in rural areas and is higher than urban areas. Of the total rural population 65 percent are directly or indirectly linked with agriculture sector. In Pakistan more than 44.8 percent people generate their income from agriculture sector, and the higher rate of increase in poverty in the rural areas has provoked debate on growth and productivity trends in the agriculture sector. Therefore, it is the need of the hour to determine such factors which affect the poverty status of a rural household. Utilising unique IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) panel data together with sub-sample of PRHS (Pakistan Rural Household Survey) for two districts of Punjab (Attock and Faisalabad) the present study aim at analysing and estimating the rural poverty trends and determinants of rural poverty from the late 1980s to 2002. The data was analysed by using binary logistic model and head count measure. The results show that the chance of a household tripping to poverty increased due to increase in household size, dependency ratio, while, education, value of livestock, remittances and farming decreased the likelihood of being a poor. Moreover, the socio-economic opportunities as represented by the availability of infrastructure in the residential region also play a significant role in the level of poverty faced by a household. This study makes a modest contribution by attempting to analyse the need for focusing on anti-poverty policies, which can nip the evil in the bud.

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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 47 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 909-923

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:47:y:2008:i:4:p:909-923
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  1. Bokosi, Fanwell Kenala, 2006. "Household Poverty Dynamics in Malawi," MPRA Paper 1222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rashid Amjad & A.R. Kemal, 1997. "Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 39-68.
  3. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2003. "Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 249-275.
  4. Shahnawaz Malik, 1996. "Determinants of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: A Micro Study," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 171-187.
  5. Talat, 2006. "Trends in Absolute Poverty and Governance in Pakistan: 1998-99 and 2004-05," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 777-793.
  6. Salman Syed Ali & Sayyid Tahir, 1999. "Dynamics of Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 837-858.
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