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Agriculture and the macroeconomy

  • Schiff, Maurice
  • Valdes, Alberto

Based on an economy-wide perspective, this paper begins with a discussion of the bias against exports and agriculture that characterized the economic literature and the development strategies in many developing countries after World War II. This is followed by an analysis of how the macroeconomic environment affects agricultural structural price incentives. Specifically, the paper discusses how early policies concerning industrial protection, exchange rates, and interest rates and other fiscal policies can strongly influence the economic incentives for agriculture compared with other sectors, identifying the most relevant literature and alternative approaches used on this issue. It then proceeds to examine how the real exchange rate can be affected by exogenous shocks, such as the foreign terms of trade, with emphases on the Dutch Disease phenomenon and agriculture. The paper next examines the influence of interest rates on incentives in agriculture, arguing that, surprisingly, this has been a neglected area in the literature. The paper explores the effects on agriculture of structural adjustment programs implemented since the early 1980s in developing countries. The final section surveys the literature on agriculture and the macro-economy in industrial countries, focusing on the impact of the exchange rate on export competitiveness in the United States, the cost of agricultural protection for the overall economy in Europe and Japan, and the increased importance of fluctuations in money markets for the farm sector and the additional instability they generate

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1967.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1967
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  1. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  2. Rausser, Gordon C. & Chalfant, James A. & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1985. "Instability in Agricultural Markets: The US Experience," 1985 Conference, August 26-September 4, 1985, Málaga, Spain 182621, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag78-1.
  4. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
  5. Kyle, Steven, 1992. "Pitfalls in the measurement of real exchange rate effects on agriculture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1009-1019, July.
  6. Dorosh, Paul & Valdés, Alberto, 1990. "Effects of exchange rate and trade policies on agriculture in Pakistan:," Research reports 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
  8. Ralph G. Lattimore & G. Edward Schuh, 1979. "Endogenous Policy Determination: the Case of the Brazilian Beef Sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 27(2), pages 1-16, 07.
  9. Amin, A.A., 1996. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Policy on Cameroon's Agricultural Competitiveness," Papers 42, African Economic Research Consortium.
  10. Bela Balassa, 1965. "Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries: An Evaluation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 573.
  11. A. Valdés, 1994. "Agricultural Reforms In Chile And New Zealand: A Review," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 189-201.
  12. Panagariya, Arvind & Schiff, Maurice, 1991. "Taxes versus quotas : the case of cocoa exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 756, The World Bank.
  13. Martin, Will & Warr, Peter G, 1993. "Explaining the Relative Decline of Agriculture: A Supply-Side Analysis for Indonesia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(3), pages 381-401, September.
  14. Krueger, Anne O & Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1988. "Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(3), pages 255-71, September.
  15. Mundlak, Yair, 1997. "The Dynamics of Agriculture," 1997 Conference, August 10-16, 1997, Sacramento, California 197028, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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