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Is agriculture the engine of growth?

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Richard Tiffin
  • Xavier Irz

Abstract

We seek to address formally the question raised by Gardner (2003) in his Elmhirst lecture as to the direction of causality between agricultural value added per worker and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Using the Granger causality test in the panel data analyzed by Gardner for 85 countries, we find overwhelming evidence that supports the conclusion that agricultural value added is the causal variable in developing countries, while the direction of causality in developed countries is unclear. We also examine further the use of the Granger causality test in integrated data and provide evidence that the performance of the test can be increased in small samples through the use of the bootstrap. Copyright 2006 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2006.00141.x
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Article provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (07)
Pages: 79-89

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Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:35:y:2006:i:1:p:79-89
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  1. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
  2. Schiff, Maurice*Valdes, Alberto, 1998. "Agriculture and the macroeconomy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1967, The World Bank.
  3. Kogel, Tomas & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2001. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 337-357, December.
  4. Koo, Won W. & Jinding, Lin, 1992. "An Intersectoral Perspective on the Relationship between the Agricultural and Industrial Sectors in Chinese Economic Development," Occasional Paper Series No. 6 197870, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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  12. Kanwar, Sunil, 2000. "Does the Dog Wag the Tail or the Tail the Dog? Cointegration of Indian Agriculture with Nonagriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 533-556, September.
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  17. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Estudillo, Jonna P & Otsuka, Keijiro, 1999. "Green Revolution, Human Capital, and Off-Farm Employment: Changing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 497-523, April.
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