Does the Dog Wag the Tail or the Tail the Dog? Cointegration of Indian Agriculture with Nonagriculture
An oft-repeated refrain in the development literature has been the 'neglect' of the agricultural sector vis-a-vis the industrial sector in the development process of the less developed economies. Since infrastructure, is crucially linked to both agricultural and industrial development, poor instructure development may make it appear as if slow agricultural growth has caused slow industrial growth. Further, in estimating the relation between agriculture and industry, the former should not be assumed to be exogenous; rather, this should first be established. Moreover, given that most time series are trended, conventional regression techniques may yield spurious regressions and significance tests. To circumvent these various problems, we study the cointegration of the different sectors of the Indian economy in a multivariate vector auto regression framework.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Krishna, Raj, 1982. "Some Aspects of Agricultural Growth, Price Policy and Equity in Developing Countries," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 03.
- Dolado, J.J. & Lutkepohl, H., 1994. "Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems," Papers 9424, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Juan J. DOLADO & Helmut LÜTKEPOHL, 1994. "Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1994,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Rangarajan, C., 1982. "Agricultural growth and industrial performance in India:," Research reports 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Peter Timmer, C., 1988. "The agricultural transformation," Handbook of Development Economics,in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 275-331 Elsevier.
- Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-218, March.
- Mohan Rao, J. & Caballero, Jose Maria, 1990. "Agricultural performance and development strategy: Retrospect and prospect," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 899-913, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)