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Does The Dog Wag The Tail Or The Tail The Dog? Cointegration Of Indian Agriculture With Non-Agriculture

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  • Sunil Kanwar

    (Delhi School of Economics)

Abstract

An oft-repeated refrain in the development literature has been the 'neglect' of the agricultural sector vis-a-vis the industrial sector in the development process of the less developed economies. Since infrastructure, is crucially linked to both agricultural and industrial development, poor instructure development may make it appear as if slow agricultural growth has caused slow industrial growth. Further, in estimating the relation between agriculture and industry, the former should not be assumed to be exogenous; rather, this should first be established. Moreover, given that most time series are trended, conventional regression techniques may yield spurious regressions and significance tests. To circumvent these various problems, we study the cointegration of the different sectors of the Indian economy in a multivariate vector auto regression framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunil Kanwar, 1996. "Does The Dog Wag The Tail Or The Tail The Dog? Cointegration Of Indian Agriculture With Non-Agriculture," Working papers 35, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:35
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    1. Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Lachaal, Lassaad, 2007. "Agricultural sector and economic growth in Tunisia: Evidence from co-integration and error correction mechanism," MPRA Paper 9101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gaspar, João & Pina, Gilson & Simões, Marta, 2014. "Agriculture in Portugal: linkages with industry and services," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 95(4).
    3. Joao Paulo A. de Souza, 2017. "Biased Technical Change in Agriculture and Industrial Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 549-583, July.
    4. Dorward, Andrew & Kydd, Jonathan & Morrison, Jamie & Urey, Ian, 2004. "A Policy Agenda for Pro-Poor Agricultural Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-89, January.
    5. Harish Mani & G. Bhalachandran & V. N. Pandit, 2011. "Public Investment In Agricultural And Gdp Growth-- Another Look At The Inter Sectoral Linkages And Policy Implications," Working papers 201, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. de Souza, Joao Paulo A., 2014. "Growth Complementarity Between Agriculture and Industry: Evidence from a Panel of Developing Countries," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2014-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    7. Eze Simpson Osuagwu, 2020. "Empirical Evidence of a Long-Run Relationship Between Agriculture and Manufacturing Industry Output in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    8. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2007. "Modelling Seasonal Dynamics in Indian Industrial Production--An Extention of TV-STAR Model," Working papers 162, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    9. Kaya, Ozgur & Kaya, Ilker & Gunter, Lewell F., 2008. "The Impact of Agricultural Aid on Agricultural Sector Growth," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6743, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Pina, Gilson M. G., 2013. "Mudança estrutural e a relação entre os setores em Cabo Verde [Structural change and the sectoral linkage in Cape Verde]," MPRA Paper 46015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kumawat, Lokendra, 2010. "Effect of Rainfall on Seasonals in Indian Manufacturing Production: Evidence from Sectoral Data," MPRA Paper 25300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Richard Tiffin & Xavier Irz, 2006. "Is agriculture the engine of growth?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 79-89, July.
    13. RAMDE, Fousseni & LO, Sérigne Bassirou, 2015. "Le Role Du Secteur Agricole Dans L’Economie Du Senegal [The Role Of The Agricultural Sector In The Senegal Economy]," MPRA Paper 81906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. de Souza, Joao Paulo A., 2015. "Evidence of growth complementarity between agriculture and industry in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Ansari, S. A. & Khan, W., 2018. "Relevance of Declining Agriculture in Economic Development of South Asian Countries: An Empirical Analysis," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(2).
    16. Subramaniam, Vijay & Reed, Michael R., 2009. "Agricultural Inter-Sectoral Linkages and Its Contribution to Economic Growth in the Transition Countries," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51586, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Behera, Deepak Kumar, 2012. "Economic Growth And Sectoral Linkages: Empirical Evidence From Odisha," Journal of Regional Development and Planning, Rajarshi Majumder, vol. 1(2), pages 91-102.

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