Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Co-integration and Error Correction Mechanism
For the past two decades, Tunisia has been undertaken important structural reforms, which call in most cases for market and trade liberalization (agricultural structural adjustment program, GATT reforms, free trade area with the European Union). The private-led type of growth strategy with less government intervention has culminated these last years into a more rapid economic growth and openness. Within this context, this paper examines the agricultural sector role into the economic growth and its interactions with the other sectors using time-series co-integration techniques. We use annual data from 1961 to 2005 to estimate a VAR model that includes GDP indices of five sectors in Tunisian economy. Empirical results from this study indicate that in the long-run all economic sectors tend to move together (co-integrate). But, in the short-run, the agricultural sector seems to have a limited role as a driving force for the growth of the other sectors of the economy. In addition, growth of the agricultural output may not be conducive directly to non-agricultural economic sector in the short-run.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.eaae.org|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Tiffin & Xavier Irz, 2006. "Is agriculture the engine of growth?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 79-89, 07.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000.
"Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Richard J Smith & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," ESE Discussion Papers 38, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Hazell, P. B. R. & Roell, Ailsa, 1983. "Rural growth linkages: household expenditure patterns in Malaysia and Nigeria," Research reports 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Chaudhuri, Kausik & Rao, R. Kavita, 2004. "Output fluctuations in Indian agriculture and industry: a reexamination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 223-237, February.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter B. & Brown, James, 1988.
"Farm-nonfarm linkages in rural sub-Saharan Africa,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
6, The World Bank.
- Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
- Block, Steven A., 1999.
"Agriculture and economic growth in Ethiopia: growth multipliers from a four-sector simulation model,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 20(3), May.
- Block, Steven A., 1999. "Agriculture and economic growth in Ethiopia: growth multipliers from a four-sector simulation model," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 241-252, May.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994.
"Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992. "Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model," Discussion Papers 92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Shujie Yao, 2000. "How Important is Agriculture in China's Economic Growth?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 33-49.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Salih Turan Katircioglu, 2006. "Causality between agriculture and economic growth in a small nation under political isolation: A case from North Cyprus," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 331-343, April.
- Kanwar, Sunil, 2000. "Does the Dog Wag the Tail or the Tail the Dog? Cointegration of Indian Agriculture with Nonagriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 533-556, September.
- Henneberry, Shida Rastegari & Khan, Muhhamad Ehsan & Piewthongngam, Kullapapruk, 2000. "An analysis of industrial-agricultural interactions: a case study in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 17-27, January.
- Hunter Humphries & Stephen Knowles, 1998. "Does agriculture contribute to economic growth? Some empirical evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 775-781.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998.
"Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
- MB Kaabia & JM Gil, 2000. "Short- and long-run effects of macroeconomic variables on the Spanish agricultural sector," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 449-471, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa103:9416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.