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Agricultural productivity growth and escape from the Malthusian trap

  • Tomas Kögel

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from a regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter a regime of hihg economic and population growth. To explain this transion of regime, we construct a two-sector growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. With this structure our model is able to replicate the stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. In addition, we show that industrialization requires rising growth of agricultural total factor productivity. This result is in marked contrast to previous work within a similar framework - but with a constant population - wich came to the conclusion that industrialization requires merely a rising level of agricultural total factor productivity. We conclude by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to also include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime where economic growth may lead to decreasing fertility. (AUTHORS)

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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2000-002.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-002
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  1. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, 2001. "Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 187-203, September.
  2. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  3. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
  4. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
  5. Sorensen, Anders, 1999. "R&D, Learning, and Phases of Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 429-45, December.
  6. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June.
  7. Kelly, Morgan, 2001. "Linkages, Thresholds, and Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 39-53, March.
  8. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," Arbetsrapport 2000:5, Institute for Futures Studies.
  10. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  11. Goodfriend, Marvin & McDermott, John, 1995. "Early Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 116-33, March.
  12. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
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