IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v63y2017icp143-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Litsios, Ioannis
  • Pilbeam, Keith

Abstract

We provide new evidence that current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain have become non-stationary after the adoption of the euro implying that there is no long-run stable relationship between savings and investment contrary to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. This can be taken as evidence of unsustainable current account balances and loss of solvency for the underlying economies. Using the ARDL methodology we also report a statistical association between fiscal balances and current account balances, which implies that fiscal austerity can help these economies to reduce their current account deficits and restore their competitiveness. Our empirical evidence also suggests a particularly strong significant negative association between domestic investment and current account deficits in all three economies. The magnitude of this latter effect may have important policy implications concerning the ways in which investment is financed in order to alleviate current account deficits and improve the external competitiveness of these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 143-152.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:143-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499931630846X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Papadogonas, Theodore & Stournaras, Yannis, 2006. "Twin deficits and financial integration in EU member-states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 595-602, July.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    4. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
    5. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
    6. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-627, May.
    7. Levy, Daniel, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 49-66.
    8. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, February.
    11. Martin Schmitz, 2014. "Financial remoteness and the net external position," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 191-219, February.
    12. Ho, Tsung-wu, 2002. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 555-564, August.
    13. Panagiotis Pantelidis & Emmanouil Trachanas & Athanasios L. Athanasenas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "On the Dynamics of the Greek Twin Deficits: Empirical evidence over the period 1960 – 2007," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 2(2), pages 9-32, December.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
    15. Charles Wyplosz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives," IHEID Working Papers 03-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    17. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
    18. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
    19. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    21. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    22. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    23. Jansen, W. Jos, 2000. "International capital mobility: evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 507-511, August.
    24. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2015. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross‐Section Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, January.
    25. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    26. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    27. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    29. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    30. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    31. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Djurić, Sandra, 2010. "Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries," MPRA Paper 24149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    33. Schmitz, Birgit & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    35. Lori Leachman, 1991. "Saving, investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-163, June.
    36. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    37. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    38. Anindya Banerjee & Paolo Zanghieri, 2003. "A New Look at the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle using an Integrated Panel," Working Papers 2003-22, CEPII research center.
    39. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    40. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    41. Nikolina E. Kosteletou, 2013. "Financial Integration, Euro and the Twin Deficits of Southern Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 161-178, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariam Camarero Author-X-Name-Mariam & Josep Lluís Carrión-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," Working Papers 2005, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2020. "GovernmentSpending Efficiency, MeasurementandApplications:a Cross-country Efficiency Dataset," Working Papers REM 2020/0147, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Gaysset, Isabelle & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2019. "Twin deficits and fiscal spillovers in the EMU's periphery. A Keynesian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-116.
    5. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2018. "Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?," Working Papers REM 2018/31, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    8. Benedict Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles & Saida Khamidova, 2020. "Terror and its Fiscal Consequences," Working Papers REM 2020/0140, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Dissou, Yazid & Nafie, Yousra, 2021. "On the link between current account and fiscal imbalances in the presence of structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Egypt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 15-27.
    10. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    11. Su, Thanh Dinh & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2021. "Twin balances, public governance and private investment: Quantile estimation for OECD countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 85-93.
    12. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Working Papers 15/18, Department of Economics, City University London.
    2. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    3. Natalya Ketenci, N., 2010. "The Feldstein Horioka Puzzle by groups of OECD members: the panel approach," MPRA Paper 25848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Abu N.M. Wahid & Mohammad Salahuddin & Abdullah M. Noman, 2010. "Savings and investment in South Asia: Evidence from likelihood ratio based panel cointegration," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 658-666, November.
    5. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    6. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in groupings of OECD members: A panel approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 76-87.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Rasool, Ghulam & Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2016. "Considering the effect of biomass energy consumption on economic growth: Fresh evidence from BRICS region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1442-1450.
    8. Dash, Santosh Kumar, 2019. "Has the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle waned? Evidence from time series and dynamic panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 256-269.
    9. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    10. Ramesh Chandra Das, 2020. "Interplays among R&D spending, patent and income growth: new empirical evidence from the panel of countries and groups," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    12. Nikolina E. Kosteletou, 2013. "Financial Integration, Euro and the Twin Deficits of Southern Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 161-178, April.
    13. Ma, Wei & Li, Haiqi, 2016. "Time-varying saving–investment relationship and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 166-178.
    14. Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2009. "Financial integration in East Asia: Evidence from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 314-326, May.
    15. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2016. "The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 120-127.
    16. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Driha, Oana M. & Sinha, Avik, 2020. "The dynamic effects of globalization process in analysing N-shaped tourism led growth hypothesis," MPRA Paper 100078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Akinlo Taiwo & Simon-Oke O. Olayemi, 2015. "Re-examine foreign direct investment and economic growth: Panel co-integration and causality tests for sub-Saharan African countries," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 73-86, March.
    18. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, I," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 685-693.
    20. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "CEEC vs. PIGS: a comparative panel assessment of financial sustainability and twin deficits," Working Papers LuissLab 1088, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International financial integration; Twin deficits; Feldstein-Horioka; ARDL; Co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F - International Economics
    • F - International Economics
    • F - International Economics
    • H - Public Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:143-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.