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Has the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle waned? Evidence from time series and dynamic panel data analysis

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  • Dash, Santosh Kumar

Abstract

This objective of this paper is to examine the Feldstein-Harioka puzzle by using both time series analysis that accommodates structural breaks, and dynamic panel error-correction method. Our sample consists of 118 countries over the period 1981–2013. Results from ARDL model suggest that long-run capital is highly mobile in high-income countries (HIC), moderately mobile for both middle- and low-income countries. Our finding of the low long-run saving coefficient for HICs shows that failure to account for a structural break may overstate the long-run saving coefficient. Findings from the pooled mean group estimators suggest that capital is moderately mobile in the middle-income countries, and highly immobile in the high- and low-income countries in the long run. Our findings highlight that ignoring structural break, the type of data (time series/panel), and econometric method used can affect the conclusion about capital mobility. The adjustment coefficient in the time series analysis is comparatively higher than the panel data analysis. We also test whether country size and openness affect the saving–investment correlation. While the effect of country size on the saving coefficient is mixed, the saving estimate is found to be a function of the degree of openness. We also discuss policy implications of our findings on the current account sustainability.

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  • Dash, Santosh Kumar, 2019. "Has the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle waned? Evidence from time series and dynamic panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 256-269.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:83:y:2019:i:c:p:256-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Feldstein–Horioka puzzle; Structural break; Capital mobility; Panel ARDL; Pooled mean group estimator; CIPS test; Panel unit root test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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